2000—2019年全球猪肉贸易格局演变及其对中国的启示——基于复杂贸易网络分析视角

基于2000—2019年全球猪肉贸易数据,采用复杂网络分析方法,研究了全球猪肉贸易网络格局演变及中国猪肉贸易网络特征,并进一步探讨了中国扩大猪肉进口的潜在贸易伙伴选择问题。研究结果表明：过去近20年来,全球猪肉贸易网络核心国相对固定,猪肉贸易网络呈“碎片化”特征。目前中国已经成为全球第一大猪肉进口国,且进口呈现北美、西欧、南美“三足鼎立”的来源格局。未来中国扩大猪肉进口,潜在的贸易伙伴可选范围比较广泛。一方面可以继续巩固和深化同德国、西班牙、美国、巴西等传统贸易伙伴之间的合作关系,另一方面也可以积极拓展朋友圈,增加从意大利、比利时等其他出口国及泰国、越南等周边国家的进口,以打造更加多元高效的猪肉进口网络。

Dynamics of global pork trade networks during 2000-2019 and its implications for China: A complex network analysis

Based on the trade data from 2000 to 2019, this paper uses a complex network analysis method to evaluate the dynamics of global pork trade networks and to identify the characteristics of China's pork networks. Moreover, the issue of potential trade partners for China to expand its pork imports in the future has been discussed. The results show that, while the trade links between the countries involved in global pork trade are relatively "scattered" during the past two decades, the core players in the global pork trade networks are relatively fixed. China, as the No.1 pork importing country in the world, has been playing an increasingly important role in the global pork trade networks. As China's pork imports volume grows, North America, Western Europe and South America have been turning into China's main source of imports, and showing a "tripartite" source pattern. To expand its pork imports in the future, China could have a wide range of potential pork trading partners judging from the current global trade networks. On the one hand, China could deepen the trade relations with its traditional pork trade partners, i.e., Germany, Spain, the USA and Brazil. On the other hand, China could seek for new trade partners, for example, expanding pork imports from Italy and Belgium, as well as other neighboring countries such as Thailand and Vietnam.