基于未确知测度的岩体稳定性多元联系度评价模型*

为准确评定岩体稳定性等级，引入未确知测度理论、多元联系度理论和同异反确定不确定体系，建立基于未确知测度的岩体稳定性多元联系度评价模型。该模型通过指标组合权重值和单指标测度矩阵，得出多指标综合测度矩阵、同异反联系度矩阵和模糊评价矩阵。并借助多元联系度定量计算待评岩体的评价等级、定性分析及准确预判岩体稳定性的发展趋势，较好地优化置信度评价过程，克服传统模型不能定量表达不确定性因素的缺陷，而且拓展指标隶属等级交叉的特性。以1号岩体为例，研究结果表明:岩体的稳定性等级为Ⅲ级，处于基本稳定状态，但有着向不稳定状态（Ⅳ级）移动的趋势。模型的评价结果与实际结果相吻合，说明应用该模型评判岩体稳定性等级是有效可行的。

Evaluation model on multivariate connection degree of rock mass stability based on unascertained measure

In order to accurately evaluate the stability level of rock mass,the unascertained measure theory,the theory of multivariate connection degree and the system of identical discrepancy contrary determination uncertainty were introduced to establish an evaluation model on the multivariate connection degree of rock mass stability based on the unascertained measure.In this model,the multi-index comprehensive measure matrix,identical discrepancy contrary connection degree matrix and fuzzy evaluation matrix were obtained through the index combination weight value and single index measure matrix.With the help of multivariate connection degree,the evaluation grade of the rock mass to be evaluated was calculated quantitatively,then the qualitative analysis and the accurate prediction on the development trend of rock mass stability were carried out.It optimized the process of confidence evaluation,overcame the defect that the traditional model could not express the uncertain factors quantitatively,and expanded the cross characteristics of index membership grade.Taking the No.1 rock mass as an example,the research results showed that the stability grade of the rock mass was grade Ⅲ,which was basically stable,but it tended to move to the unstable state (grade Ⅳ).The evaluation results of the model were consistent with the actual results,which indicated that the model was effective and feasible to evaluate the stability grade of rock mass.