基于住房价格的通勤碳排放空间分异——以济南市为例

住房价格能够影响居民的居住决策,进而影响其通勤碳排放。为研究住房价格与通勤碳排放的内在关系,构建住房价格影响个体通勤碳排放的理论模型,并利用“个体—街道”两水平线性模型,对济南市居民出行调查数据进行实证检验。研究发现：（1）通勤碳排放呈现出“中心低碳化、外围高碳化”,且外围趋于分化的空间格局。（2）住房价格通过虹吸效应影响居民的碳排放。具体表现为住房价格与碳排放负相关,外围低房价吸引居住者,而居住者的远程机动通勤导致外围高值碳排放;但住房价格的边际增碳程度随着远离市中心而先缓（距市中心 5 km）后增（距市中心5 km及以上）。（3）外围工资收入对虹吸效应起调节作用。工资水平较高的外围区域有利于实现职住平衡,抑制了虹吸效应,进而分化为碳排放的冷点区,工资水平较低的外围区域则分化为碳排放的热点区。研究认为,应通过多中心空间发展战略、提高居民的就业可达性、优化针对公租房的公共交通供给等措施,引导居民低碳通勤。

Spatial differentiation of the commuting carbon emissions based on a housing price perspective:A case study of Jinan city

Housing price dominates the residential location decisions, which in turn, has impacts on travel patterns and travel-related carbon emissions. Therefore, it is important to understand the effects of housing price on carbon emissions from commuting for low-carbon construction. In the paper, a theoretical model of residents' choices, housing price and carbon emissions from commuting is proposed. Then, this paper estimates the effect of housing price on carbon emissions from commuting by Multilevel Model at both individual and street levels based on data from the Jinan residents' travel survey. It is found that carbon emissions from commuting are lower in the central city but higher at outskirts, and housing price has siphon effect on carbon emissions. Specifically, the siphon effect shows that lower housing price in suburban areas leads to long commuting distance and motorization, which causes an increase in carbon emissions. Moreover, the marginal effect of housing on carbon emissions increases slowly within a 5 km distance from city center but rapidly beyond 5 km. Furthermore, we found that wages in suburban areas could moderate the siphon effect. It is easy for the suburban areas with rapid employment growth and higher wage to sustain jobs-housing balance, and less carbon emissions, but the suburban areas with lower wage tend to emit more. Overall, the government should pay attention to the polycentric spatial development, the improvement of the accessibility to work place as well as the transportation facilitation in public rental housing community in the low-carbon construction in the future.