1985—2016年安固里淖湖泊湿地生态系统稳态转变及对气候变化的响应

气候变化及人类活动严重影响着湿地的生态系统健康和可持续发展，进而对区域生态安全产生威胁. 以京津冀坝上地区典型内陆湖泊安固里淖湿地为例，结合1985—2016年的Landsat TM/ETM+影像数据生成MVWR指数(modified vegetation water ratio，修正化植被水体指数)，基于“杯球”模型量化分析安固里淖湿地稳态转变与生态弹性，并进一步探究湿地稳态转变与生态弹性对气候变化的响应. 结果表明:①1985—2016年来安固里淖湿地于1995年、2004年发生了稳态转变，其RSI(regime shifts index，稳态转变指数)分别为0.973、2.108；1995年发生恢复性稳态转变，使得湿地水量增加、水域面积扩大，植被生长状态有所恢复；2004年发生退化性稳态转变，使得湿地进入严重受损状态，且2004年后湿地干涸的时期持续时间增加. ②就湿地稳态转变的空间分布而言，安固里淖湿地发生波动和剧烈波动的面积达9.26 km2，占比为17.81%，主要分布在湿地外围东部和南部，虽然湿地核心区域发生稳态转变的强度不及湿地外围东部和南部，但是在核心区小的转变仍能导致湿地生态系统的严重退化，使湿地整体发生稳态转变. ③1985—2016年安固里淖湿地生态系统弹性水平呈持续性下降，降幅达37.5%，从干涸中的恢复难度增加. ④气候要素中气温与降水对安固里淖湿地稳态转变均有影响，其中降水的影响更加显著，尤其是受前期降水影响明显，湿地稳态转变与长期的水量变化有关. 研究对湿地较长时间内的稳态转变及弹性状态变化定量化分析，以揭示湿地的退化过程，将生态系统弹性的持续下降作为湿地退化预警的一个信号，可为湿地的管理及修复提供理论依据和方法借鉴. 

Regime Shifts of Anguli Wetland and Its Response to Climate Change from 1985 to 2016

Climate change and human activities seriously affect the ecosystem health and sustainable development of wetlands, thereby threatening the regional ecological security. In this study, a typical inland lake wetland in the Bashang area of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Anguli wet land was taken as study case. Using the MVWR index (Modified Vegetation Water Ratio) obtained from Landsat TM/ETM+ images, the resilience characteristics of wetland ecosystems in different regime state were analyzed based on the cup-ball model. Then we further explored the response of wetland ecological resilience to chimate change. The results show: (1) Anguli wetland experienced regime shift in 1995 and 2004, and its region shifts index (RSI) was 0.973 and 2.108, respectively; The restorative regime shift occurred in 1995, resulting in the increase of wetland water volume, the expansion of water area, and the restoration of vegetation growth status; The degraded regime shift occurred in 2004, which severely damaged the wetland, and the duration of wetland drying up increased after 2004. (2) In terms of the spatial distribution of wetland regime shift, the area of Anguli wetland fluctuated and fluctuated violently amounted to 9.26 km2, accounting for 17.81%, mainly in the east and south of the wetland. Although the steady-state transition in the core area is not as strong as that in the east and the south, small change in the core area can still lead to the serious degradation of the wetland ecosystem and the regime shift of wetland. (3) From 1985 to 2016, the ecological resilience of Anguli wetland decreased continuously, with a decrease of 37.5%, and the difficulty of recovery from drying up increased. (4) Temperature and precipitation have an impact on the regime shift of Anguli wetland, especially the precipitation in the early stage. The regime shift of wetland is related to the long-term change of water volume. The quantitative analysis of the regime shift and resilience change of wetland in a long time can reveal the degradation process of wetland, and take the continuous decline of ecosystem resilience as a signal of wetland degradation early warning, which can provide theoretical basis and methodological reference for wetland management and restoration.