全球人口与粮食的空间错位演变及影响因素分析

基于重心模型和空间错位指数方法,系统分析了1990—2017年全球人口与粮食的时空格局、空间错位特征及影响因素等。结果表明：（1）近30年来,全球人口与粮食均呈增长态势,两者的时序变化特征存在明显差异,全球人均粮食产量的区域差异特征显著,多数国家的“人粮关系”矛盾突出。（2）在全球尺度,人口与粮食重心存在显著的空间错位特征,两者在空间分布上呈现反向错位发展的态势。（3）在国家尺度,人口与粮食的空间错位格局呈现由南至北依次为“正错位区—负错位区—正错位区”。负向高错位区稳定在印度、日本等国家,正向高错位区稳定在美国、加拿大等国家。（4）全球各大洲人口与粮食的空间错位格局基本稳定,空间错位指数发生转向的国家分布在亚洲、欧洲、南美洲和非洲。（5）自然环境、国际环境、农业发展、社会环境等多种因素综合作用致使人口规模和粮食产量在空间分布上存在区域差异,促成全球人口与粮食的空间错位格局。政策启示：中国有必要加快农业供给侧结构性改革,增强农业竞争力和粮食自给率,合理统筹配置两种资源和处理两个市场之间的关系,建立规避世界粮食贸易波动和不确定性风险的应对策略,构建中国农业生态安全和粮食安全的保障体系。

Spatial mismatch evolution of global population and food and its influencing factors

In this paper, the spatial center of gravity model and spatial mismatch index method was applied to systematically analyze the spatio-temporal pattern, spatial mismatch characteristics, and influencing factors of global population and food in 1990-2017. The results showed that: (1) In the past 30 years, the global population and food has showed a growth trend, but their change characteristics are obviously different in temporal distribution. The per capita food production has obvious spatial differences in the world, and the contradiction between population and food in most countries is serious. (2) On the global scale, there is an obvious spatial mismatch between the center of gravity of population and food, which shows a trend of reverse mismatch in spatial distribution. (3) On the national scale, the regional difference of spatial mismatch between population and food is obvious, showing a spatial pattern of "positive mismatch area - negative mismatch area - positive mismatch area" from south to north. Negative high mismatch regions are stable in countries such as India and Japan, and positive high mismatch regions are stable in countries such as the United States and Canada. (4) The spatial mismatch pattern of population and food on all continents is basically stable, and the countries whose spatial mismatch index changes direction are distributed in Asia, Europe, South America and Africa. (5) The combined effect of natural environment, international environment, agricultural development and social factors has obvious regional differences in the spatial distribution of population and food, thus forming a spatial mismatch pattern between global population and food. It is necessary to accelerate the structural reform of agricultural supply side, enhance agricultural competitiveness and food self-sufficiency rate, reasonably allocate and deal with both domestic and international markets and resources, construct countermeasures to avoid fluctuations and uncertainties in world grain trade, and build a guarantee system for China's agricultural ecological security and food security.