工业行业源头-过程-末端全过程减排潜力评估研究

为探究行业不同工艺的污染物减排潜力，将污染物减排聚焦至行业产排污工艺，基于自上而下与自下而上结合的测算方法建立了一套源头-过程-末端全过程协同减排潜力评估模型——SPECM，选择广东省佛山市顺德区为研究区域，以污染物VOCs为主要对象测算减排潜力. 结果表明:①VOCs产生量较大但产污强度较低的减排行业(Ⅰ)和VOCs产生量较大且产污强度较高的减排行业(Ⅲ)是顺德区VOCs减排中需重点管控的行业，其源头-过程-末端全过程协同减排潜力最高达顺德区VOCs排放总量的71.23%. ②通过穷举法测算减排目标下源头-过程-末端全过程协同减排潜力系数，获得1.8×104组可行解. ③根据顺德区生产现状对减排潜力系数进行优化，对于具有源头减排潜力的木质家具制造行业、泡沫塑料制造行业和家用厨房电器具制造行业，其源头减排潜力系数取8%~13%，过程和末端减排潜力系数分别取20%~50%和60%~100%，共265组可选方案；对于其他仅具有过程和末端减排潜力的行业，其过程和末端减排潜力系数分别选取40%~80%和70%~100%，共2 230组可选方案. 研究显示，SPECM模型能够将行业减排具体到生产工艺减排，并可以针对性地提出行业减排方案. 

Evaluation of Emission Reduction Potentials of the Source-Process-End Processes of Industrial Industry

In order to explore the emission reduction potential of pollutants in different processes in the industrial sector, and accurately focus on the emission reduction from production to discharge, a set of source-process-end processes coordinated emission mitigation potential evaluation model- SPECM- was established. This model was created based on a combination of top-down and bottom-up measurement methods. Specifically, the VOCs emission reduction potentials of Shunde District, Guangdong Province was selected as a case study. The study shows that: (1) The emission reduction industry sectors that generate a large amount of VOCs but low pollution intensity (Ⅰ) and the emission reduction industry sectors that generate a large amount of VOCs and have high pollution intensity (Ⅲ) are industries that should be given priority. The source-process-end process coordinated emission reduction potential was up to 71.23% of the total VOCs emissions in the city. (2) The Python exhaustive method was used to quantify the non-inferior solution set of the source-process-end coordinated emission reduction potential coefficients, and 18, 000 sets of feasible solutions were obtained. (3) According to the current production situation in Shunde District, the emission reduction potential coefficients of the whole process have been optimized. Regarding the wood furniture manufacturing, foam plastic manufacturing, and household kitchen electrical appliance manufacturing industries that have the potential for emission reduction at the source, the emission reduction potential coefficients at the source, process, and end were 8%-13%, 20%-50%, and 60%-100%, respectively. A total of 265 options were available. For other industries with only process-based and end emission reduction potentials, the process-based and end emission reduction potential coefficients were 40% to 80% and 70% to 100%, respectively. Accordingly, a total of 2, 230 groups of options are available. The research shows that the SPECM model can specify the emission reduction at the industry level to the production process level, and put forward targeted emission reduction recommendations.