中国县域肉类生产的时空演变及影响因素

随着人均收入的增加和城镇化的推进,促进了居民肉类消费增加。厘清肉类生产格局的变化对肉类可持续供给具有重要意义。基于中国县域视角,以2000—2016年的肉类产量数据为基础,运用标准差椭圆、空间自相关、地理探测器等方法,揭示我国肉类生产的时空演变规律及其影响因素。结果表明:（1）2000—2016年的全国肉类产量呈增加态势,增幅为43.5%,不同区域肉类产量差异较大。（2）全国肉类高产县数量增加显著,范围扩大,空间上呈条带状集聚特点,重心整体北移;其生产的集聚特征显著且相对稳定,但局部表现出一定差异。（3）自然资源禀赋、社会经济及农业技术在不同阶段都影响肉类生产空间格局的演变。粮食产量和第一产业增加值是主要因素,农业机械总动力影响逐年增大,不同因子间的交互作用会强化肉类生产空间分异的效果。

Spatio-temporal evolution of meat production in China's counties and its influencing factors

With the increase of per capita income and the advancement of urbanization, residents' meat consumption increases. It is of great significance to clarify the change of meat production pattern for sustainable meat supply. Based on the data of meat production at county level in China from 2000 to 2016, this study uses standard deviation ellipse, spatial autocorrelation, geographical detector and other methods to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution of meat production in China and its influencing factors. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2016, the national meat output showed an increasing trend, up by 43.5%. The meat output of different regions showed a great difference. (2) The number of counties with high meat production in China increased significantly, the range expanded, and the barycenter shifted to the north as a whole. The agglomeration characteristics of production were significant and relatively stable, but there were some local differences. (3) Natural resource endowment, socio-economy and agricultural technology all affect the evolution of meat production spatial pattern at different stages. Grain output and value added of the primary industry were the main factors. The influence of the total power of agricultural machinery increased year by year, and the interaction between factors strengthened the effect of spatial differentiation of meat production.