绿色技术进步、农业经济增长与污染空间溢出——来自中国农业水资源利用的证据

基于2002～2016年的省级面板数据,以农业水资源利用过程中的化肥源面源污染、厩肥源面源污染、灌溉过程碳排放及农药流失作为非合意产出,构建了以"蓝水-绿水"为中心的水资源分析框架,借助SBM模型和Malmquist-Luenberger指数,探析我国农业水资源利用过程的绿色技术进步情况,利用空间面板模型重点考察绿色技术进步、农业经济发展水平与农业水资源利用过程的污染排放之间的关系。化肥源面源污染排放量和农药流失量均表现出空间聚集的特性;在其他投入和产出不变的的既定条件下,促进农业水资源利用过程中的绿色技术进步能够缓解农业污染的局面;将农药流失污染作为非合意产出的农业水资源利用绿色技术进步带来的环境污染减排积极影响更强;农业经济发展水平与4类污染排放分别体现为倒N型、倒U型、正N型和倒N型的关系,随着农业经济发展水平的提升,我国绝大多数地区仍处于农药、化肥粗放使用的倒N型的上升阶段,农药流失和化肥施用引起的面源污染情况仍在加剧,农业经济发展水平与厩肥还田造成的面源污染相分离的状态逐渐消失,而农业水资源利用过程中产生的碳排放污染情况则不容乐观,大部分地区农业灌溉所产生的碳排放面临快速上升的趋势。

Green Technology Progress,Agricultural Economic Growth and Pollution Space Spillover Effect：Evidence of Agricultural Water Utilization Process in China

Referring to the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2016, we took non-point source pollution caused by chemical fertilizer, non-point caused by farmyard manure, carbon emission during irrigation process and pesticide loss as the undesired output in the agricultural water resources utilization process. We constructed a water resources analysis framework centering on blue water and green water, and investigated the green technology progress of China's agricultural water resources utilization process by employing the SBM model and the Malmquist-Luenberger index. Moreover, adopting the spatial panel model, it examined the influences of the green technology progress and the agricultural economic development level while utilizing the water resources on the pollutant emission. The results showed that non-point source pollution caused by chemical fertilizer and pesticide loss all showed the characteristics of spatial aggregation. Given same input and desired output, promoting the green technology progress in agricultural water resources utilization could alleviate agricultural pollution. The environmental technology efficiency regarding the pesticide loss as the undesired output was more effective in reducing environmental pollution. The relationship between the agricultural economic development level and the aforementioned four types of pollution emissions were as follows respectively: inverted N-type, inverted U-type, N-type and inverted N-type. With the agricultural economy develops, most areas in China are still in the rising stage of inverted N-type use of pesticides and chemical fertilizer, and the situation of pesticide loss pollution and non-point source pollution caused by chemical fertilizer are exacerbating. The separation caused by agricultural economic development level and non-point source pollution caused by farmyard manure has gradually disappeared, while the carbon pollution generated by agricultural water resources utilization is unoptimistic.