安徽省镇域经济发展水平的时空分异及空间格局影响因素

基于1 244个镇域研究单元的人均财政收入数据，采用多种空间方法分析安徽省镇域经济发展水平的时空差异特征，并运用地理加权回归（GWR）进行影响因素分析。结论如下：（1）从不平衡度指数看，该值在研究时序变化上先升后降，表明近期研究区内部差异程度有所减小；空间序列上南北差异较大，黄山、宣城等市内部差异较小，阜阳、亳州等市内部差异较大。（2）从Zip指数来看，虽然经济发展水平集中的力量逐渐减弱，但实力强劲乡镇的发展速度依然较快且其垄断性较强。（3）从空间分异格局看，高值区主要有两大组团，一处在皖南区集聚且逐渐向北扩展，但2016年有所缩减；另一处则贯穿南北形成条带状“串珠”，呈现先逐渐扩大后几乎消失的变化特征。中值区呈基底状分布在皖中区域。低值区分布在西北和东北，其中西北区逐渐向南扩大，东北区逐渐减小。（4）从空间集聚状态看，4种显著类型区均存在且以显著HH区和显著LL区为主。显著HH区在黄山市周围集聚，并逐渐向池州、宣城扩展；显著LL区在阜阳、亳州等市集聚，并逐渐向南延伸；显著HL区和显著LH区数量较少且集聚现象不明显。（5）从影响因素来看，基于回归系数的平均值对经济发展水平的影响从大到小依次为建成区人口/总人口>常住人口>从业人员>二三产业从业人员/从业人员>行政面积>建成区面积/总面积>工业增加值>人均工业产值>地均工业产值。

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Economic Development and Influence Factors at Town Level in Anhui Province

Based on the per capita fiscal revenue data of 1244 towns, using the comprehensive methods, the spatio-temporal characteristics and its influencing factors of the economic development at town level in Anhui Province was analyzed. The results were shown as follows. Firstly, from the internal differences, the imbalance index first rose and then declined, indicating that the degree of internal differences had decreased recently, but from the perspective of spatial imbalance, the overall difference was larger between the north and south. In detail, it was high between Huangshan and Xuancheng whereas low at Fuyang and Bozhou. Secondly, from the perspective of the Zip index, the concentration of economic development was gradually weakening, but the development speed of large towns was still outstanding. Thirdly, from the perspective of spatial interpolation, there were two major groups of the high-value regions. One was concentrated in the southern part and gradually expanded to the north, but it had been reduced in 2016. The other had formed a “beads” throughout the north and south, and the beads gradually expanded and then disappeared. The median regions were distributed in the middle of the central region. The low-valued regions were distributed in the northwest and northeast, and the northwestern region gradually expanded to the south whereas the northeast region gradually decreased. Fourthly, from the perspective of spatial differentiation, four distinct types of regions existed and were dominated by significant HH regions and significant LL regions. The significant HH regions were mainly distributed in Huangshan, Chizhou and Xuancheng in the southeast of Anhui. The significant LL regions were mainly distributed in Fuyang and Bozhou, and its range was expanded and gradually extended southward. The number of significant HL regions and significant LH regions were small and its agglomeration phenomenon was not obvious. Fifthly, from the influencing factors, the impact of the average value of the regression coefficient from large to small was the proportion of the population in the built-up regions, resident population, employees, the proportion of employees in the second and third industries, administrative regions, built-up regions proportion, industrial added value, per capita industrial output and average industrial output value.