长江三角洲城市群土地利用及其生态系统服务价值时空演变研究

采用1990、2000、2010和2015年四期长江三角洲城市群土地利用数据，利用土地利用转移概率矩阵等方法，描述了长江三角洲城市群的土地利用方式和转移方向，采用谢高地等修正Costanza价值量评价法定量计算了区域内的生态系统服务价值，并借助地理探测器对其空间分布格局进行了归因解释。研究表明：长江三角洲城市群土地利用类型以耕地为主，呈现逐年减少的趋势，林地变化相对稳定，水域变化先增后减，建设用地持续增长且保留率最高，耕地为其主要转化来源，草地主要转化为耕地和林地，水域主要转出为建设用地。1990、2000、2010和2015年长江三角洲城市群的生态系统服务价值分别为 2 644.26、2 639.53、2 615.49 和 2 569.88 亿元，总体呈逐渐下降趋势，其中农田生态系统价值下降最多，森林生态系统对整个区域的贡献率最大，Ⅲ、Ⅳ等级的城市的生态系统服务价值高于Ⅰ、Ⅱ等级，且城市规模越大，经济价值越占主导地位。空间分布格局形成以太湖和巢湖为中心的高值集聚区、东南地区高于西北地区的特征，其受到坡度、高程、土壤类型、人口等因子的影响。

Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Land Use and Ecosystem Service Value in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Based on the land utilization data of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015, the land utilization distribution pattern and the transfer direction of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration have been described using the transition probability matrix of land utilization methods, Then, the value of ecosystem services within the region quantitatively was analyzed by the Xie Gao-di modified Costanza value evaluation methods, and its spatial distribution pattern was explained by geodetector. The research showed that the main land utilization type of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta was cultivated land, showing a trend of decreasing year by year. The change of woodland was relatively stable, the change of water area was increased in the early time and then decreased, the construction land has been growing, and the retention rate of construction land was the top one, which cultivated land was the main source of conversion, grassland was mainly converted into cultivated land and forest land, and the water were mainly transferred to construction land. The ecosystem services value in the 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations was 266.426 billion yuan, 263.953 billion yuan, 261.549 billion yuan and 256.988 billion yuan, showing a trend of decreasing year by year. The value of farmland ecosystem decline was most obvious, and the contribution of forest ecosystem makes the greatest contribution to the entire region The value of the ecosystem services of cities with grades III and IV is higher than that of I and II, and the larger the scale of the city, the more obvious dominant position of the economic value. The spatial distribution pattern was characterized by high-value clusters centered on Taihu Lake and Chaohu Lake, and higher in the southeast region than in the northwest region, which influenced by slope, elevation, soil type and population.