基于资源环境承载力与开发建设适宜性的国土开发强度研究——以江苏省为例

以江苏省为研究区域，运用特尔斐法、线性拟合预测、Kaya分解模型和多要素空间叠置分析等方法，测算未来各地市基于资源环境承载力与开发建设适宜性的可承载国土开发强度，进而识别影响区域建设用地扩张的限制性因素。结果表明：（1）不同资源环境要素对江苏省建设用地扩张的约束作用呈现显著差异，水资源对国土开发的承载水平总体稍高于环境承载水平，而碳峰值承载水平为三者最低；（2）“不适宜”开发区主要分布在湖泊湿地和沿海滩涂地区，“适宜”开发区则以苏锡常环太湖一线、宁镇扬盐沿长江一线和滨海沿线为轴带集聚分布；（3）各地市未来可承载国土开发强度呈现地域性、时间性和结构性差异，苏南地区主要面临环境和碳排放的双重约束，苏中和苏北则受水、环境和碳排放的交替约束。国土开发强度承载水平预测可为制定区域差异化的用地规模调控与生态保护政策提供理论与数据支撑。

Research on Land Development Intensity Based on Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment and Suitability of Development and Construction: A Case Study of Jiangsu

Applying delphi approach, linear fitting prediction, kaya model and multi-factor spatial overlay analysis, this paper focus on measuring land development intensity and identifying restricting factors of construction land development in Jiangsu based on carrying capacity of resources and environment and suitability of development and construction. The results indicate:（1) Resources and environment factors have different restricting impact on construction land expansion in Jiangsu, and water resource carrying capacity precedes environment, while carbon emission lags behind former factors;（2) Unsuitable development area locates on lake, wetland and coastal zone in Jiangsu, while suitable development area is in the mode of aggregated distribution which covers Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou, Nanjing-Zhenjiang-Yangzhou-Yancheng and coastal area;（3) land development intensity of each municipality in Jiangsu presents regional, temporal and structural differences. Southern Jiangsu is mainly faced with restriction of environment and carbon emission, while median and northern Jiangsu area is restricted by water resource, environment and carbon emission alternately. Land development intensity prediction can provide theoretical and data base for making regional-different policies of land regulation and ecological protection.