长江经济带土地生态安全时空演化特征及影响因素

为了实现长江经济带“共抓大保护，不搞大开发”的发展目标，系统分析该地带土地生态安全问题是关键。通过构建土地生态安全DPSIR模型，对2006~2016年长江经济带110个地级市的土地生态安全水平进行评价，在此基础上，运用探索性空间数据分析与地理探测器方法探究土地生态安全的时空演化特征及主要影响因素。研究得出：(1)时间上，2006~2016年长江经济带土地生态安全水平呈现明显的增长趋势，土地生态安全状况逐渐改善；空间上，土地生态安全水平从东向西逐渐递减，但其空间差异正逐步缩小；区域间，长江三角洲城市群、长江中游城市群成为土地生态安全水平的增长热点区，并向城市群外围逐步扩散。(2)长江经济带土地生态安全存在着显著的正空间自相关，呈现集聚分布特征：土地生态安全高值（H-H）集聚区主要分布于长三角地区，低值（L-L）集聚区主要分布于湖南、贵州二省的部分地区。(3)经济社会发展水平、环境保护力度、土地利用效率、城市化水平为长江经济带土地生态安全的主导影响因素，但不同区域的主导驱动因素存在显著差异，这为改善土地生态安全，提出有针对性的政策建议提供了理论依据。

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Land Ecological Security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

This article aimed to realize the development goal of “working together for greater protection rather than greater exploitation” of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, systematically analyzing the land ecological security problem is the key. This paper evaluates the land ecological security level of 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2016 by constructing the DPSIR (drives-pressure-state-impact-response) model of land ecological security. On this basis, using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and geographic detector methods to explore evolution characteristics of land ecological security and its influencing factors, the study found that: (1) In terms of time, the level of land ecological security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed an obvious growth trend during 2006~2016, and the land ecological security status gradually improved; Spatially, the level of land ecological security gradually decreases from east to west, but the spatial difference is gradually narrowing; Among regions, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration have become regional hotspots of land ecological security level, and gradually spread to the periphery of urban agglomerations. (2)The land ecological security of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has significant positive spatial autocorrelation, showing agglomeration distribution characteristics: the high-value(H-H) agglomeration area is mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the low-value (L-L) agglomeration area is mainly distributed in parts of Hunan and Guizhou province. (3)The level of economic and social development, environmental protection, land use efficiency and the lever of urbanization are the dominant influencing factors affecting the land ecological security of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, However, there are significant differences in the leading drivers factors of different regions, which provides a theoretical basis for improving land ecological security and providing targeted policy recommendations.