太湖流域水敏性与建设用地扩张的关联评价

水是流域空间管理最重要也是最敏感的要素，流域不同区段的水敏性差异会对建设用地扩张形成不同的限制性影响。从流域空间综合管理的视角出发，尝试从水资源、水生态、水环境、水灾害4个方面构建流域水敏性分区评价指标及方法，以太湖流域为例开展基于小流域单元的水敏性评价，并采用1985、1995、2007、2017年4个典型年份的土地利用数据，刻画了过去30余年太湖流域建设用地扩张与水敏性之间的关联关系。研究表明：（1）1985~1995年间，太湖流域建设用地扩张与水敏性基本上没有关联，高水敏区建设用地扩展强度最高；（2）1995~2007年间，空间扩张与水敏性的关联性增强，建设用地扩展强度随水敏性增强而下降，扩展强度较大区域以低水敏区域为主；（3）2007~2017年，建设用地扩展强度显著提升，拓展空间主要布局在低水敏区域，水敏性对空间扩张的约束性在增强；（4）虽然太湖流域水敏性对建设用地扩张的限制作用在提升，但二者关联度还不够高，水敏性还没有成为建设用地扩张的关键约束。研究结果可为协调流域经济社会发展与资源环境关系、制定适应水敏性的空间管理政策提供科学依据。

Correlation Evaluation of Water Sensitivity and Construction Land Expansion in Taihu Lake Basin

Water is the most important and sensitive factor in watershed spatial management, and the water sensitivity difference in different sections of the basin will have different restrictive effects on the expansion of construction land. From the perspective of integrated watershed spatial management, this paper attempts to construct watershed water sensitivity regionalization evaluation indexes and methods from four aspects: water resources, water ecology, water environment and water disasters. Taking Taihu Lake basin as a case, water sensitivity evaluation based on small watershed units is carried out. Based on the land use data of 1985, 1995, 2007 and 2017, the correlation between construction land expansion and water sensitivity in Taihu Lake basin in the past 30 years is depicted. The research shows that: ①From 1985 to 1995, the expansion of construction land in Taihu Lake Basin was basically not related to water sensitivity, and the construction land in high water sensitive area has the highest expansion intensity; ②From 1995 to 2007, the correlation between spatial expansion and water sensitivity was enhanced, the expansion intensity of construction land decreased with the increase of water sensitivity, and the area with larger expansion intensity was dominated by low water sensitivity area; ③From 2007 to 2017, the expansion intensity of construction land has been significantly improved. The expansion space is mainly distributed in low-water sensitive areas, and the restriction of water sensitivity on spatial expansion was increasing; ④Although the restriction of water sensitivity on the expansion of construction land is increasing,the correlation between them is not high enough, and the water sensitivity has not become a key constraint on construction land expansion. The research results of this paper can provide a scientific basis for coordinating the relationship between socio-economic development and resource environment in the basin and formulating spatial management policies for adapting to water sensitivity.