安徽省黄山市绿色发展时空趋势研究

基于《安徽省绿色发展指标体系》，结合黄山市的具体经济、社会与环境特征，设计包括6项一级指标和33项二级指标的黄山市绿色发展指标体系，运用基于群决策的层次分析法确定各级绿色发展指标的权重。基于2004～2016年统计数据，评估黄山市及各县区绿色发展水平的时空变化趋势与特征，利用聚类分析和主成分分析确定造成黄山市县区绿色发展时空差异的主导因素。结果表明：(1)2004～2016年黄山市及各区县绿色发展水平整体呈现上升趋势，究其原因，主要在于生态保护和增长质量这2方面绿色发展指数的显著增加。(2)黄山市各县区的绿色发展时空差异较大。造成2016年黄山市各县区绿色发展水平差异的指标主要集中于土地覆盖与土地利用、资源利用效率和污染物排放量。(3)2004～2016年间，黄山市在资源利用、环境治理和绿色生活指数方面进步有限，建议黄山市近期可以将其绿色发展工作重点置于提高能源和水资源利用效率、降低能耗、减少各主要污染物排放量和促进绿色出行等方面。

Study on Spatio-temporal Trends of the Green Development of Huangshan City in Anhui Province

Based on the Anhui Province Green Development Index System as well as local economic, social and environmental characteristics, a new green development assessment system was established for the Huangshan city including six first-level and 33 second-level indicators. The analytic hierarchy method based on group decision making was then used to calculate the weight of each indicator. The spatiotemporal trends and characteristics of the green development of the Huangshan City as well as its 7 counties and districts were evaluated based on statistics from 2004 to 2016. Finally, Principal Component Analysis and Clustering Analysis were used to determine the dominant factors leading to the spatiotemporal differences in the green development of Huangshan City and its counties and districts. Study results have shown that due to the improvement in ecological protection and growth quality, there had been an overall increasing trend in the green development of Huangshan City and its counties and districts between 2004 and 2016. Secondly, there had been much spatiotemporal variation in the green development of the counties and districts of Huangshan City. The dominant factors leading to the variations in the green development of the counties and districts of the Huangshan City in 2016 included land use and land cover, resource use efficiency, and pollutant emissions. Thirdly, there had been limited progress in resource utilization, environmental governance, and green living in Huangshan City from 2004 to 2016. Therefore, it is suggested that Huangshan City should put improving energy and water use efficiency, cutting energy consumption, reducing pollutant emissions, and promoting green commuting in priority to push its green development process in the near future.