基于推拉理论的“农二代”耕作意愿研究——以河南省为例

"农二代"耕作意愿关系到农业经营主体的发展、新型职业农民的培养和国家粮食安全。基于河南省597份问卷调查数据,运用推拉理论并采用二元Logistic回归分析模型,探索了"农二代"分别在近期和远期的耕作意愿及其影响因素。结果表明:与近期相比,"农二代"的耕作意愿在远期将会下降。"农二代"耕作意愿在近期和远期的影响因素有同有异。种地经历、家庭类型和农村生活压力等对"农二代"近期、远期的耕作意愿均影响显著且方向相同;种地技能要求、日常家庭开支对近期、远期的耕作意愿均有影响,但前后方向相反。而有些因素仅对"农二代"近期耕作意愿或远期耕作意愿单方面有影响。农户特征和农村推力等方面的因素在"农二代"近远期耕作意愿中均发挥重要作用。农村拉力在近期耕作意愿中作用明显,而城镇拉力在远期耕作意愿中影响显著。最后,根据"农二代"的耕作意愿影响因素,提出了具体的政策建议以期为地方政府制定相关政策提供支撑。

Push-pull Theory Study of the Farming Willingness of Rural Youths:Taking Henan Province as an Example

The farming willingness of rural youth is highly related to the development of agricultural management, to the training of novel skilled farmers and to the national food security of China. Based on the data of 597 questionnaires obtained in Henan Province, we explore the farming willingness and its impact factors of rural youth in the near and long term, respectively. We use the push-pull theory as well as the binary logistic regression analysis model in this work. The results show that the farming willingness of rural youth will decrease in the far future compared with the results in recent years. There are similarities and differences between the short-term and long-term reasons of the “two generation” farming willingness. The farming experience, family type and life stress in the rural aeras have significant effect, along the same direction, on the short-term and long-term farming willingness of rural youth, while the requirements of farming skill and daily family expenditure have influence on the short-term and long-term farming willingness with opposite directions. However, some factors only affect the farming willingness of short-term or the long-term farming willingness of rural youths. Factors such as peasant household characteristics and rural thrust play an important role in both the short-term and long-term farming willingness of rural youths. In addition, the pull force in rural areas has a significant effect on the short-term farming willingness, while the pull force in urban areas has a significant effect on the long-term farming willingness. According to the impact factors of the farming willingness of rural youth, we show some specific policy suggestions to provide comments for local governments to formulate their policies.