产业发展对城市蔓延影响的差异性分析——以长江经济带104个城市为例

经济由高速增长向高质量转变的背景下,土地城市化快于人口城市化而带来的城市蔓延不利于城市的高质量可持续发展。基于2001~2015年长江经济带面板数据考察了产业发展对城市蔓延的差异性影响，研究发现：（1）总体上，在产业结构方面，随着第二产业就业比重的增加，城市蔓延度提高。而随着第三产业就业比重增加时，城市蔓延减缓，这其中起主要作用的是生活性服务业。（2）从城市规模角度来看，第二产业对城市蔓延的影响，在中小城市起显著的作用，而在大城市不显著。第三产业在大城市起显著的抑制性作用，而在中小城市不显著，这主要与不同城市规模下集聚经济效益的发挥有关。（3）从蔓延类型角度来看，推动城市蔓延向集约型方向发展的主要是第三产业中的生活性服务业，而第二产业以及生产性服务业推动城市蔓延向过度蔓延方向发展。长江经济带应合理布局第二产业，大力发展第三产业，提高产业的集聚效应,同时避免不合理开发和盲目招商引资而造成的城市蔓延。

Difference Analysis of Industrial Development on Urban Sprawl：Data Based on 104 Cities from the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Under the background of the rapid economic transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, urban sprawl, which is due to the land urbanization beyond population urbanization, is barely beneficial for high-quality and sustainable development. According to the data from 2001 to 2015 on the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the differential impact of industrial development on urban sprawl is examined. The results generally prove that：（1) on the first aspect of industrial structure, with the growing proportion of employment in the secondary industry, the degree of urban sprawl increases; nevertheless, with the advent of increasing proportion of employment in the tertiary industry, the pace of urban sprawl decreases;（2) on the second aspect of urban scale, it is the influence of the secondary industry on urban sprawl that plays a significant role in small and medium cities but not in large cities. The tertiary industry plays a prominent inhibitory role in large cities but not in small and medium cities, which mainly relates to the economic benefits of aggregation under different urban scales;(3) on the third aspect of the types of urban sprawl, it is the life service in the tertiary industry that promotes urban sprawl towards intensive development, while the secondary and the productive service industry promote the urban sprawl to excessive sprawling. All in all, in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the secondary industry should be rationally laid out, the tertiary industry should be vigorously developed, the agglomeration effect of the industry should be improved, and the urban sprawl that is caused by unreasonable development and blind investment attraction should be avoided.