基于气候变化的干旱脆弱性评价——以青海东部为例

基于青海东部农业区22个县区的20个气象、农业、社会经济统计指标,利用层次分析法和等级化等数学分析方法,分别进行了暴露性、敏感性和适应性的评价,再通过分析承险体的内在脆弱性,将气候变化和内在脆弱性进行综合分析,得到了青海东部干旱脆弱性等级。结果表明:在目前全球变暖背景下,干旱脆弱性最高的是民和、化隆,较高的是城中、城北区、湟中、大通等四县区,门源、互助、同仁、同德的干旱脆弱性中等。在此基础上,提出了强化旱灾的风险管理模式、倡导节约型水资源开发利用模式等干旱防范措施。

Vulnerability assessment of drought based on climate change:a case study of eastern Qinghai Province

Based on 20 statistical indices of meteorology,agriculture and socioeconomy in 22 counties and districts in eastern Qinghai Province and analytic hierarcy process(AHP) method and mathematic classification method,the assessment was carried out to exposure,sensitivity and adaptability.Also a comprehension analysis of climatic change with the inherent vulnerability is done through the analysis of the inherent vulnerability of the risk-affected body,and the drought vulnerabilities grade in eastern Qinghai Province was obtained.Results show that under present global warming background,the drought vulnerability of Minhe and Hualong counties is the strongest,Chengzhong and other three counties and districts is stronger,and Menyuan,Huzu,Tongren and Tongde is medium.On this basis,drought preventing countermeasures were proposed,such as enhance drought management,advocate save-type development and usage of water resources,etc.