Predictive model for areas with illegal landfills using logistic regression

The existence of illegal landfills is an environmental problem in most countries. However, research on this issue is scarce and limited by the availability and quality of data on the subject. Thus, most illegal landfill studies have only been conducted in a partial manner, focusing on geographical aspects or the causes of these landfills (lack of environmental awareness, inadequate waste management systems, and the role of local government). This research analyses a sample of 120 possible areas with illegal landfills in Andalusia using logistic regression in order to obtain a predictive model for the occurrence of these landfills, including both types of variables (geographical and behavioural) jointly. The results confirm that the variables that most influence the occurrence of illegal landfills are spatial (“Industrial Land”, “Plains” and “Rural Land”); whilst the variables that most reduce the likelihood of illegal landfills are those related to certain characteristics of the municipal waste management system and environmental awareness, such as “Availability of Recycling Facilities”, “Punitive Policies”, “Supervision” and “Awareness-raising Campaigns”. The model obtained shows that variables of very different nature and magnitude interact in the occurrence of illegal landfills, each of which contributes a series of features characteristic of its scale. It is advisable, therefore, to perform an analysis using a multi-scale approach in order to gain an overall understanding of the phenomenon.