突发公共卫生事件下公交暴露风险辨识方法:以深圳应对新型冠状病毒肺炎为例

为定量评估突发公共卫生事件下的公交暴露风险,基于公交线网、交通分析区及新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情信息等多源数据,考虑公交站点、交通分析区及疫情场所3种研究尺度,集成公交网络结构拓扑模型、公交网络中心性模型及核密度分析等空间分析方法,提出公交暴露风险的多尺度辨识方法,并以深圳市为例进行验证。结果表明:公交站点暴露风险在空间上呈现多中心—圈层结构,较高及高暴露风险站点多为交通枢纽、商场等,占比达26.40%;较高及高暴露风险交通分析区主要分布在工业、商业聚集区及居民点密集区,占比达32.84%;较高及高暴露风险疫情场所主要集中在城市核心区域,占比为28.92%。

Identification method of bus exposure risk under public health emergencies:taking Shenzhen’s fight against COVID-19 as an example

In order to quantitatively assess bus exposure risk under public health emergencies,based on multi-source data of public traffic network,traffic analysis zones and COVID-19 epidemic information,three research scales of bus station,traffic analysis zones and epidemic sites were considered,and a multiscale identification method of bus exposure risk was proposed by integrating network structure of public traffic topology model,network of public traffic central model and kernel density analysis.Then,verification analysis was conducted with Shenzhen as an example.The results show that spatial distribution pattern of bus station exposure risk presents a"multi-center-circle"structure,with high-exposure risk stations mostly being transportation hub,shopping mall and so on,accounting for 26.40%.Traffic analysis zones with high-exposure risk are mainly distributed in industrial,commercial and residential clusters,which makes up for 32.84%.Epidemic sites with high-exposure risk are mainly concentrated in urban core areas,accounting for 28.92%.