基于社会燃烧理论的突发公共卫生事件网络情绪传播模型

为有效引导和管控突发公共卫生事件网络舆情,考虑社会相关性和网络群体间情绪状态转移的不确定性,基于社会燃烧理论研究突发公共卫生事件网络情绪传播机制。首先基于社会燃烧理论分析网络用户群体的社会影响因素,建立未燃-阴燃-燃烧-抑燃-稳定(UDBFS)网络情绪传播模型和考虑干预措施的网络情绪传播模型;然后以新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情为例,开展模拟仿真与干预试验,验证模型和干预措施的合理性,分析干预措施强度对网络情绪传播的影响。研究结果表明:模型便于描述新冠肺炎疫情网络情绪传播过程,干预措施能有效抑制不良网络情绪的传播,并使燃烧用户群体数量下降32.9%;同时降低"社会点火温度",可迅速减少事件爆发后短时间内"燃烧"用户群体数量。

Network emotion propagation model of public health emergencies based on social combustion theory

To effectively guide and control online public opinion under public health emergencies,online emotional transmission mechanism of public health emergencies was studied based on social combustion theory by considering social relevance and uncertainty of emotional state transfer between network groups.Firstly,based on social combustion theory,social influencing factors of network user groups were analyzed,and network emotion propagation model of unflaring-smouldering-burning-suppression-stabilization(UDBFS)and network emotion propagation model considering intervention measures were established.Then,take COVID-19 epidemic as an example,simulation and intervention tests were carried out,rationality of model and intervention measures were verifed,and impact of intensity of intervention measures on online emotional transmission was analysed.The results show that model is convenient to describe the spread of online emotions in COVID-19 epidemic,and intervention measures can effectively suppress the spread of bad online emotions,and reduce the number of users of combustion by 32.9%.At the same time,lowering the"social ignition temperature"can rapidly reduce the number of"combustion"users within a short time after outbreak of event.