中国低碳试点省份发展路径研究

近百年来,全球气候正经历以变暖为主要特征的显著变化。为应对气候变化,减少温室气体排放已经成为国际社会的共识。作为世界上最大的发展中国家和最大的二氧化碳排放国之一,应对气候变化离不开中国的参与。2010年8月,中国国家发展和改革委员会确定在陕西、广东、辽宁、湖北、云南五省开展低碳试点工作。本文以这五个省份为研究对象,根据1995-2009年统计年鉴数据,基于STIRPAT模型定量分析了人口规模、城市化水平、富裕度、产业结构和能源强度对碳排放的影响,并根据分析的结果给出了五个低碳试点省份低碳发展路径:陕西省建设低碳省份应该从产业结构和能源强度两方面入手;广东省除控制人口规模外,还应该调整能源结构,倡导低碳生活方式;辽宁省降低碳排放主要应该从能源强度方面入手;湖北省应该从能源强度、产业结构和人口规模三个方面着手;云南省主要应该从人口规模入手,控制人口增长,提高人口素质,实现碳减排目标。

Analysis of Development Path for Low-Carbon Pilot Provinces in China

To mitigate climate change,reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become the consensus of the international community.As the largest developing country and one of the largest emitters of CO2 in the world,China has participated actively in the action of mitigating climate change.In this study we try to explore low-carbon development paths for 5 provinces,namely Shaanxi,Yunnan,Guangdong,Liaoning,and Hubei in China,which were assigned as national pilot provinces for low-carbon development by the National Development and Reform Commission in August 2010.Based on the data from 1995 to 2009,a quantitative analysis of carbon emissions in 5 pilot provinces are conducted involving 5 factors such as population,urbanization,wealth,industrial structure and energy intensity in STIRPAT model.The results show: Shaanxi should focus on industrial restructuring and decreasing energy intensity.In addition to controlling population growth,Guangdong province should optimize the energy structure and advocate a low-carbon lifestyle.Lowering energy intensity should be the main measure to reduce carbon emissions in Liaoning;reducing energy intensity,optimizing industrial structure and controlling population growth play an important role on the path to low-carbon development for Hubei;Yunnan should make great effort in controlling population growth as well as improving population quality in order to realize its carbon emission target.