中国区域污染与经济增长实证:基于面板数据联立方程

考虑区域污染与区域经济增长的双向作用机制,构建联立方程模型,利用我国1998-2008年30个地区的面板数据,实证研究了6类区域污染物指标与区域经济增长的内在关系,对环境库兹涅茨曲线假说进行验证,探讨区域污染的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:①仅工业粉尘、工业SO2与GDP存在倒U型曲线关系,符合环境库兹涅茨曲线假说;工业废水、工业固废与GDP存在正的线性关系,工业废水中污染物化学需氧量、工业烟尘与GDP存在负的线性关系,不支持环境库兹涅茨曲线假说。指出并非经济发展到一定水平,区域污染问题就会得到全面解决。②人口规模对区域污染排放影响不显著;科技水平和能源利用率的提高能有效降低区域污染排放;政府环保管制未能有效控制区域污染排放;加大贸易开放程度对污染排放影响有正有负;产业结构不合理会加剧区域污染排放。③工业烟尘、工业SO2污染对区域经济增长有反作用。现阶段,我国区域污染对区域经济增长的反馈机制较弱,给我们敲醒了环保警钟。指出转变经济增长方式,走经济增长与环境保护协调发展的路子是我国今后的必然选择。

Regional Pollution and Regional Economic Growth:A Simultaneous Estimination Based on Panel Data Model

Based on the interactional mechanism between regional pollution and regional economic growth,this paper constructs a simultaneous model to investigate the relationship among six regional pollution indicators and regional economic growth.In this model,we use interprovincial panel data of 30 provinces in China duriring 1998-2008,in the purpose of verifying the hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) and trying to find out the main determinants affecting Chinese regional pollution.The results show that: First,the relation between GDP and two indicators(inddust and indSO2) present an reverse "U-shape" EKC curve;two indicators(indwater and indsolid) and GDP show positive linear relation;two indicators(indcod and indsmoke) and GDP show negative relation.So it does not mean that regional pollution problems would be totally settled when the regional economic development reached a certain stage.Second,the effect of population size isn’t significant;technological progress and energy efficiency are the efficient ways to discourage pollution;government environmental pollution control regulation nearly has no effect on pollution; trade liberalization has both positive and negative impact on pollution;irrational industrial structure would intensify the pollution discharge.Third,Indsmoke and indSO2 create a feedback loop with regional economic growth.Regional pollution feedback mechanism is weak in present stage.Transforming the mode of economic growth,and coordinating environmental protection with economic growth,are the choices of China.