基于自组织临界的上海PM10污染预警与风险评价

应用R/S分析、功率谱及强度-频度法对上海市PM10污染的时间尺度特征进行分析,同时将PM10污染事件与沙堆模型中的崩塌事件进行类比,发现上海市PM10污染的演化具有自组织临界性(SOC)复杂系统的相关特征.上海市PM10污染指数的长期波动特征,在动力学上主要是由PM10污染物的SOC机制导致的.小的污染源如民用炉灶、餐饮业、建筑施工等排放的少量污染物也有可能通过SOC行为形成较严重的空气污染事件.在2010年期间,上海市较严重空气污染事件(PM10污染指数为100~250)的发生可能性较大,具有一定潜在的重污染风险.

Risk assessment and forwarning of PM10 pollution in Shanghai based on self-organized criticality theory

With rescaled range analysis, power spectral analysis and frequency-size analysis, the time scaling properties of PM10 pollution in Shanghai was studied. An analogy between PM10 pollution events and the sand pile was made, suggesting the existence of self-organized criticality (SOC) in PM10 pollution. It was the SOC of PM10 pollutants that resulted in the temporal variation of PM10 pollution indexes in Shanghai. The emission of minor air pollution sources, such as home kitchens, hotels and building construction, could trigger the occurrence of high PM10 pollution events by SOC behavior. The possibility of high pollution events risk would be great during 2010 in Shanghai. Moreover, the occurrence of high pollution events was spontaneous and unpredicted.