非农就业、农业生产服务外包与农户农地流转行为

农户向非农就业转移被认为是农地流转的主要驱动力，然而在非农就业非常普遍的情况下，农地流转率仍然徘徊不前。农业生产服务外包的发展通过改变非农就业农户从事农业的机会成本进而影响非农就业对农地流转的驱动效应。基于湖北省农户家庭2018年微观调查数据，运用二元离散模型和中介效应模型实证检验农户非农就业对农地流转的影响及农业生产服务外包在其中的中介作用。研究发现：（1）非农就业有助于增加农业生产服务外包进而促进农地转出、抑制农地转入；（2）农业生产服务外包抑制农地转出、促进农地转入；（3）若忽略农业生产服务外包的影响，非农就业对农地流转市场供给的正向效应与需求的负向效应均被高估，这为现实中农户非农就业程度高与农地流转率低的矛盾提供了重要解释。农业生产服务外包在优化农村劳动力资源配置的同时，也对农地流转市场的供需结构进行了重新塑造。

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Non-farm Employment and Agricultural Productive Services Outsourcing on Farmers’ Behavior of Farmland Transfer

The transfer of farmers to off-farm employment is considered to be the main driving force of farmland transfer. However, the farmland transfer rate still remains stagnant in the case of non-agricultural employment is very common. The development of agricultural production service outsourcing affects the driving effect of non-agricultural employment on farmland transfer by changing the opportunity cost of farmers engaged in agriculture. Based on the micro-survey data of farmers' households of Hubei province in 2018, we empirically tested the influence of off-farm employment on farmland circulation and the intermediary role of outsourcing services in agricultural production by using the binary discrete model and the intermediary effect model. The results showed that: (1) Non-agricultural employment is conducive to increasing the outsourcing of agricultural production services, thus promoting the farmers to rented out their agricultural lands and inhibiting the transfer of agricultural lands. (2) The outsourcing of agricultural production services inhibits the transfer of agricultural land and promotes the rented of agricultural land. (3) If the influence of agricultural production service outsourcing is ignored, it will be overestimated for both the positive effect and the negative effect of off-farm employment on farmland transfer market supply and demand. These can provide an important explanation for the contradiction between the high degree of off-farm employment of farmers and the low rate of farmland transfer in reality. Agricultural production service outsourcing not only can optimize the allocation of rural labor resources, but also reshape the supply and demand structure of the farmland transfer market in China.