公平性感知、信任与农业环境保护 ——不确定情形下农户行为选择

为深入理解农业环境政策从制定到落实的内在逻辑，从农户的公平性感知和信任出发，在农业环境保护的不确定情形下，探索性地构建农户农业环境保护行为响应理论分析框架，并基于山东、山西和陕西3省微观农户调查数据，采用路径分析、贝叶斯非线性结构方程模型和斜率分析等方法进行验证。结果表明：（1）农户农业环境保护的公平性感知对农业环境保护行为有直接和间接影响。直接影响为公平性感知越高，越能显著促进农户农业环境保护行为；间接影响为公平性感知通过提高信任进而作用于行为。（2）农业环境保护的不确定性显著阻碍了农户农业环境保护行为，且显著干扰了公平性感知向行为的转化。据此提出，农业环境保护政策的制定应考虑农户公平性感知和信任，传统命令型农业环境政策应逐步向农户参与型政策让渡；对农业环境定期检测并给予农户反馈，在降低政府长期监管成本的同时，也减少了农户农业环境保护的不确定性，从而推进农业环境保护政策的有效落实。

Perception of Fairness,Trust and Agricultural Environmental Protection:#br# Farmers’ Behavioral Choice Under Uncertainty

In order to strengthen the understanding of the internal logic of agricultural environmental policy from formulation to implementation, this article is based on the fairness perception and trust of farmers. This article constructed a theoretical framework for farmers’ to explain their agricultural environmental protection behavior under uncertainty. The data for farmers’ point of view was collected from Shanxi, Shandong and Shaanxi Province. The Path analysis, Bayesian nonlinear structural equation modelling, and Slope analysis methods were employed to test the hypothesis put forwarded in this article. The results showed that: (1) There were direct and indirect effects of farmers’ fairness perception on farmers’ behavior towards agricultural environmental policy. The impact of direct effect was much higher than the indirect effect. The direct effect indicated that the higher farmers’ perception of fairness was linked to highly motivate farmers to protect the agricultural environment. The indirect effect of farmers’ fairness perception showed that farmers’ fairness perception first enhanced the farmers’ trust, and then the trust in turn translated into the farmers’ agricultural environmental protection behavior. Likewise, (2) the uncertainty results of farmers’ agricultural environmental protection behavior had hindered farmers’ agricultural environmental protection behavior. Furthermore, the uncertainty results of farmers’ agricultural environmental protection behavior interfered with the transformation from farmers’ fairness perception to their behavior significantly. Based on the above results, it can be concluded that the farmers’ fairness perception and trust were important, and should be considered in agricultural environmental policy development. Therefore, previously used command-based agricultural environmental policies should be reconsidered. Similarly, the agricultural environmental policies which combined farmers’ participation should be implemented gradually as detecting the agricultural environment regularly and giving the feedback to farmers can be helpful to improve environmental conditions. Finally, this approach could not only reduce the uncertainty results of farmers’ agricultural environmental protection behavior and government regulatory costs but could also promote the effective implementation of agricultural environmental protection policies.