基于五种模型比较的湖南省生态旅游需求预测研究

从供求关系视角对湖南省生态旅游需求预测有利于生态旅游资源的优化配置与生态旅游产业的可持续发展。为了进一步了解湖南省生态旅游市场需求，以2008~2017年生态旅游相关数据为样本数据，运用GM（1，1）预测模型、线性回归预测模型、非参数模型、BP神经网络预测模型、时间序列预测模型（2）五种预测模型对湖南省生态旅游需求进行预测，得到线性回归模型的模拟精度最高。因此，采用线性回归模型对湖南省生态旅游总收入和生态接待旅游总人数进行预测。结果显示：2021~2025年期间，湖南省生态旅游总收入和接待生态旅游总人数呈中低速曲线递增趋势，其中生态旅游总收入名列前5强的市州是长沙、张家界、岳阳、湘潭和益阳市；生态旅游接待人数名列前5强的市州是长沙、常德、衡阳、郴州、益阳市。在各市州之间，存在生态旅游总收入与生态旅游人数不对等现象，尤以常德和张家界两市最为典型。

A Study on Forecast of Ecotourism Demand in Hunan Province Based on the Comparison of Five Models

Forecast of ecotourism demand in Hunan Province from the perspective of supply and demand is conducive to the optimal allocation of eco-tourism resources and the sustainable development of eco-tourism industry. In order to further understand the demand of eco-tourism market in Hunan Province, this study uses the relevant data of eco-tourism from 2008 to 2017 as sample data, and uses GM (1,1) prediction model, linear regression prediction model, nonparametric model, BP neural network prediction model and time series prediction model (2) to predict the demand of eco-tourism in Hunan Province, and obtains the highest simulation accuracy of linear regression model.Therefore, the linear regression model is used to predict the total ecological tourism revenue and the total number of ecological tourists in Hunan Province.The results show that the total ecological tourism revenue and total number of ecological tourists received in Hunan Province are in curve growth at medium-low speed: from 2021 to 2025, Top 5 cities and prefectures in total ecological tourism revenue are Changsha, Zhangjiajie, Yueyang, Changde, Xiangtan andYiyang ; Top5 cities and prefectures in the total number of ecological tourists received are Changsha, Changde, Hengyang, Chenzhou, Yiyang. Different cities and prefectures are unequal in total revenue and number of tourists, represented by Changde and Zhangjiajie.