Incorporating uncertainty in a chemical leaching assessment |
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Authors: | ZC Li RS Yost RE Green |
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Institution: | Department of Agronomy and Soil Science, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA |
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Abstract: | Pesticide leaching models are being used to assist in the regulation and management of pesticides by indicating their potential for leaching to groundwater. Uncertainty in model input data is not, regrettably, included in most pesticide leaching assessments. In the work described here, we use logarithmic transformations of the attenuation factor (AF), a simple process-based index model, to represent uncertainty in a pesticide leaching assessment. Characterization of a wide range of pesticides as `leachers' or `non-leachers' for a specific Hawaii hydrogeological setting is facilitated by comparing the log-transformed AF, designated AFR, for each chemical with two reference chemicals for which leaching behavior in Hawaii is known. Defining a mean and uncertainty interval for the AFR index of each chemical being ranked provides a practical method of incorporating data uncertainty into a regulatory protocol. |
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Keywords: | Uncertainty analysis Chemical leaching assessment Modeling uncertainty Chemical leaching in soils of the tropics |
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