城市建筑废物产量估算与预测方法——以海南省为例

文章首先构建了基于建筑面积和产废系数的城市建筑废物产量估算方法体系,进而在二次曲线回归、指数趋势模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络4种单项预测模型的基础上,建立了以预测有效度为准则的变权重组合模型,以揭示城市建筑废物未来变化趋势。以海南省为例计算和预测了2001-2020年城市建筑废物产量,结果显示:(1)2001-2010年海南省建筑废物总量从219.1万t增加到813.5万t,年平均增长率为12.7%,拆除建筑废物约占建筑废物总产量的70%;(2)2015年海南省建筑废物总量将达到1 621万t,2020年较之增加71.4%,将达到2 769万t;(3)变权重组合预测模型预测有效度好、精度高、误差小,优于4种单项预测模型。预测结果将为海南省建筑废物的处理处置、资源化和综合管理提供科学依据。

Generation Estimation and Forecasting of Urban Construction and Demolition Waste:A Case Study of Hainan Province

A general framework to estimate the generation of urban construction and demolition(C&D)waste was developed,which adopted such parameters as added construction area and coefficient of C&D waste generation for new construction,renovation or demolition,as well as repair or decoration.Based on the framework,a combined forecasting model with time-variant weight(CFMTVW)based on effective measure of forecasting methods was proposed to forecast the generation of urban C&D waste,so as to reveal the tendency of C&D waste generation.CFMTVW,based on four single forecasting models,was used to estimate the quantity of C&D waste in Hainan Province from 2001 to 2010 and predict C&D waste generation from 2011 to 2020.Results showed that total quantity of C&D waste in Hainan increased by 12.7% annually from 219.1×104 t in 2001 to 813.5×104 t in 2010,of which demolition or renovation waste accounted for about 70%.Total quantity of C&D waste in Hainan would reach 1 621×104 t in 2015 and 2 769×104 t in 2020 respectively,increasing by 71.4%.CFMTVW has a better validity,higher precision and lower errors compared with the other 4 single models.Results from the case study would provide scientific basis for treatment and disposal,comprehensive utilization and management of urban C&D waste in Hainan.