| 机械原因飞行事故诱因的分析与预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 甘旭升,端木京顺,丛伟,高建国.机械原因飞行事故诱因的分析与预测研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 甘旭升 端木京顺 丛伟 高建国 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西京学院汽车学院,陕西西安,710123
2. 空军工程大学工程学院,陕西西安,710038 |
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| 摘 要： | 为更好地预防机械原因飞行事故,提高安全管理和决策的水平,提出机械原因飞行事故诱因的分析与预测方法。首先借鉴"瑞士奶酪"模型的思想,建立了机械原因飞行事故诱因分析分类体系;而后构建了事故的二进制矩阵,通过进行比例矩阵分析和单一聚类分析来辨识重要的单诱因、两两诱因组合和事故主要诱发模式;最后采用Bootstrap方法对其进行预测。结果表明:所提出的方法能够辨识出机械原因飞行事故中的重要单诱因、两两诱因组合和主要诱发模式,并对其做出较为准确的预测,进而对制订事故防控预案,预防此类事故的发生具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 机械原因 飞行事故 “瑞士奶酪”模型 比例矩阵 诱发模式 单一聚类方法 |
Inducement Pattern Analysis and Prediction Study on Mechanical Causation Flight Accident |
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| GAN Xu-sheng,DUANMU Jing-shun,CONG Wei,GAO Jian-guo.Inducement Pattern Analysis and Prediction Study on Mechanical Causation Flight Accident[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(5). |
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| Authors: | GAN Xu-sheng DUANMU Jing-shun CONG Wei GAO Jian-guo |
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| Institution: | GAN Xu-sheng1 DUANMU Jing-shun2 CONG Wei2 GAO Jian-guo2(1 Automobile College,Xijing College,Xi'an Shaanxi 710123,China 2 Engineering College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710038,China) |
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| Abstract: | To better prevent mechanical causation flight accidents and improve the level of safety management and decision-making,a method to analyze and predict the inducement of mechanical causation flight accident is proposed.Firstly,the idea of Swiss Cheese model is introduced to establish the Mechanical Causation Flight Accident Inducement Analysis and Classification System(MCFAIACS),and then the proportion matrix analysis and the monothetic clustering analysis of the accident binary matrix based on MCFAIACS are ... |
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| Keywords: | mechanical causation flight accident Swiss Cheese model proportion matrix inducement pattern monothetic clustering method |
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