资源跨区域流动视角下的承载力评价——一个动态评价框架及其应用

资源环境承载力是衡量区域资源基础条件、指导国土空间布局的重要依据。针对当前承载力评价中动态承载机制不够清晰、资源要素动态性评价不够充分等问题,从开放系统角度反思承载力的时空动态性,探索资源、环境、社会经济以及人口四个子系统间的关联耦合机制,讨论资源流动对资源流入地和流出地承载规模及承载质量的影响,构建了一个适用于县域资源环境承载力动态评价的理论框架,并将其应用于天津市武清区。实证结果表明：相较于静态评价,该框架下的动态承载力评价结果更贴近于地方资源环境支撑的真实情况,对于地方层面的国土空间规划决策和区域层面的资源空间优化具有一定支撑作用。

Evaluation of resources and environment carrying capacity from the perspective of resource cross-regional mobility: A dynamic evaluation framework and practice

The resources and environment carrying capacity is an important basis for measuring the resource conditions of a region and guiding the spatial distribution of land. In the current evaluation research of resources and environment carrying capacity, we are faced with problems such as the unclear dynamic mechanism of the carrying capacity and the insufficient dynamic evaluation of the resource elements. In order to objectively and accurately evaluate the resources and environment carrying capacity of small and medium-sized county units under the requirements of high-quality development, this article, from an open system perspective, reflects the spatial and temporal dynamic properties of carrying capacity and explores the coupling mechanism between the four subsystems of resources, environment, socio-economy, and population. Then it discusses the impact of resource flow on the carrying scale and carrying quality of resource inflow and outflow areas. Based on the exploration of the dynamic carrying mechanism of resources and environment carrying capacity, a theoretical framework for the dynamic evaluation of resources and environment carrying capacity at the county scale is constructed. Finally, the framework is applied to Wuqing district of Tianjin to test its applicability. Empirical research results show that, compared with static evaluation, the dynamic carrying capacity evaluation results are closer to the real situation of local resources, environment and socio-economic level, which, to a certain extent, can support the decision-making of territorial spatial planning at the local level and the optimization of resource space at the regional level.