重大技术变革与能源地缘政治转型

技术进步是能源地缘政治演进的物质基础,重大技术变革驱动能源利用形式的迭代升级。从能源转型的历史与现实出发,初步建立技术变革与地缘政治研究的理论分析框架。重大技术变革是推动能源转型的动力,而能源转型引发能源供需关系的改变,进而催生新的能源地缘政治格局。技术变革是能源地缘政治博弈的焦点。随着第四次工业革命的到来,在地理变量维度中稀土、钴、锂等能源关键元素成为大国争夺核心,而在科技变量维度中颠覆性能源技术则成为引领能源产业变革的关键。技术竞争、新供需关系与新地缘关系一同重塑了新能源地缘政治格局。新能源技术的发展对能源安全产生重大影响,一方面能源大国的博弈格局发生变化,能源外交的运用方式随之改变;另一方面与油气相关的地缘冲突将趋于减少,但电力断供将成为地缘政治博弈的新武器。

Critical technology change and energy geopolitics transition

Technology change is the material foundation of energy geopolitics transition. Different from the traditional view that "energy politics is equal to resource politics", this article argues that resource endowment and technology breakthrough are equally important in determining energy geopolitics dynamics. Energy technology can be divided into two categories, namely competence-enhancing technology and competence-destroying technology. For example, shale oil and shale gas extraction technology belongs to the first category and renewable energy technology belongs to the second, while the breakthrough in renewable energy technology will significantly reconstruct global energy structure. Tracing the history of technological transition, the dominant energy resource evolved from wood to coal, to oil and gas and then to renewables. The energy technology innovation cycles are closely intertwined with great powers' geopolitical competition, while major technology shift triggers the upgrade of energy utilization. The technology leading state could always exert its geopolitical advantages in each energy transition process, and the success of challenging state in replacing hegemonic state is always being supported by new energy technology innovation. With the arrival of the fourth industrial revolution, renewable energies, such as wind power, solar power and controllable nuclear fusion will substantively transform and reshape global energy geopolitics. Currently, two geopolitical consequences in new energy transition could be observed. (1) Accessibility and availability to critical elements, especially the rare earth, cobalt and lithium in renewable energy sector, will become the new battle fields of energy geopolitics. (2) Disruptive technology will be the linchpin in leading energy industry upgradation. Global powers such as China, US and EU have set up their roadmaps in promoting renewable energy development. Geopolitical competition among great powers will accelerate the evolution of the present round of energy transition. The progress of new energy technology will substantively affect energy security. On the one hand, the structure of major powers game and the implementation of energy diplomacy will largely differ from the past. On the other hand, the oil and gas related geopolitical conflicts will be largely decreased. In the meanwhile, the cut-off of grids will be a new weapon in global geopolitical game.