北京城市去煤炭化过程及其驱动因素解析

去煤炭化既是能源转型的重要路径,也是能源转型的主要结果。经过20多年的努力,北京市煤炭消费量得到有效控制。系统分析北京市1995—2017年煤炭消费动态变化过程,并利用LMDI方法对2005—2017年的煤炭消费进行分解。结果表明：（1）研究期内北京市煤炭消费相对量（能源结构中的占比）持续下降,绝对量自2005年开始下降,2017年仅有350.5万tce,降幅为83.8%,去煤炭化效果显著。（2）影响因素方面,除经济规模效应外,能源结构、能耗强度与经济结构等因素变化对煤炭消费增长均有抑制作用。在去煤炭化前期经济结构调整贡献较大,后期主要由能源结构改善驱动。（3）分行业而言,电力、热力部门燃煤效率提高、煤改电、煤改气策略实施以及重工业外迁,是实现煤炭消费量削减的关键因素。（4）北京市去煤炭化过程虽对我国其他城市有一定参考作用,但因其自身具有特殊性,较难复制到其他地区。

The de-coal process and its driving forces in Beijing

De-coal process has been not only the significant energy transition path, but also the key result of that. After more than 20 years of efforts, coal consumption in Beijing has been effectively controlled. This study systematically analyzed the dynamic changes of coal consumption in Beijing from 1995 to 2017 and used the LMDI method to decompose the changes in coal consumption from 2005 to 2017. The results showed that: (1) Coal consumption began to decline in 2005, reaching 3.5 million tce in 2017 or a decrease of 84%, which means that the effect of de-coal process was remarkable. (2) In terms of driving factors, except the economic scale effect, the other three drivers had negative effects on the growth of coal consumption. In the early stage of de-coal process, economic structure adjustment played an important role in curbing coal consumption, and the change of energy structure drove the later de-coal process. (3) From the perspective of different sectors, the improvements of energy intensity and energy structure in the sector of electricity and hot water production and supply, and the relocation of metallurgy were the main contributor to the decline of coal consumption in Beijing. (4) Beijing's de-coal process had some reference values for other cities in China, but it cannot be blindly copied because of its own special characteristics.