食物贸易视角下的全球食物供需平衡及其演化分析

用食物供给量与生产量分别表示食物的可及性与自给率,其差值可表示食物贸易量,以人均每天卡路里为单位进行的折算可以更好地反映膳食营养的变化。从食物贸易视角分析了28年来食物供需平衡状况,结果表明:（1）1986—2013年,全球食物贸易量增加1.5倍;食物总产量增加0.75倍,贸易量在总产量中的比例增加约8个百分点,相当于7.9×10⁸ t食物进入国际市场,这成为改善膳食结构的重要因素。（2）28年来,食物可及性与自给率呈上升趋势,全球绝大部分人口已经达到最低2200 kal的营养标准。（3）食物可及性、自给率、贸易量均存在地域差异,非洲及南亚的部分国家是低值地区。（4）总体来看,全球人均每天热量与蛋白质供给量增加。低收入国家增速最快,中等收入国家增速次之,高收入国家增速最慢。但非洲、东南亚等地的一些欠发达国家仍未达到最低的营养标准,全球仍有一部分人处于营养不良状态。

Analysis on global food supply and demand balance and its evolution from a perspective of food trade

Food availability and self-sufficiency are represented by food supply and production, and food trade is represented by the difference. The changes of dietary nutrition can be better reflected by converting calories per person per day. The study analyzes the situation of food trade during 1986-2013. The results show that global food trade volume increased 1.5 times in the past 28 years, and food production increased 0.75 times. The proportion of trade volume in the production increased by about 8%, which is equivalent to 7.9×10⁸ t of food entering the international market and has become the key to improve the dietary structure. In the past 28 years, food availability and self-sufficiency rose, and most of the world's population reached the minimum level of 2200 kal. Food availability, self-sufficiency and trade volume all showed regional differences. Some countries of Africa and South Asia were low value areas. On the whole, the daily supply of calories and protein per capita increased. Low-income countries grew fastest, followed by middle-income countries, and high-income countries grew slowest. But some underdeveloped countries in Africa still did not meet the minimum standards of nutrition, and part of world's population was still suffering from malnutrition.