溪洛渡水电站雨水温度骤降分析与预报

对溪洛渡水电站坝址自动气象站进行了改造,在常规遥测雨量筒中加装了雨水温度传感器,得到了2010 - 2011年雨季地面雨水温度资料.在此基础上,对溪洛渡水电站大坝浇筑时碰到的降雨过程雨水温度骤降进行了分析及预报.结果如下:①2010-2011年溪洛渡水电站雨季降雨天气过程所引发的雨水温度骤降出现概率为37％,雨温骤降高值主要集中在7-8月；过程降雨量的大小并不能直接决定雨水降温的幅度,引起雨水温度骤降的因素较多.②利用90次降雨过程的历史数据建立了溪洛渡坝址站雨水温度变化最优子集回归方程,雨水温度骤降回代准确率为73％.该方程对雨水温度骤降的预报准确率达到75％,预报值与实测值的符号一致率达94.4％,表明该方程对溪洛渡坝址站雨水温度骤降预测效果较好.

Analysis and Forecast on the Sudden Dropping of Rain Water Temperature at Xiluodu Hydropower Station

The conventional recording rain gauge of automatic weather station at hydropower station is reconstructed and sensors of rain water temperature are added,so that the data of rain water temperature in 2010 and 2011 are obtained.Based on the data,the authors analyzed and forecasted the sudden dropping of rain water temperature during the Xiluodu dam construction.The results show that:(1) Occurrence rate of the sudden drop of rain water temperature arising from rainfall weather process is 37% in 2010 and 2011,the high values of sudden dropping mainly appear in July and August.Precipitation cannot directly decide the range of rain water cooling,as there are more factors that result in the sudden drop of rain water temperature.(2) Using the historical data of 90 rainfall weather processes,authors have built a optimum subsets regression equation of the sudden dropping of rain water temperature at Xiluodu Dam.The regression precision of the model of optimum subsets regression on the sudden drop of rain water temperature is 73%.The forecast accuracy rate on the sudden dropping of rain water temperature of the equation is 75%,and the Symbols consistent rate of forecast and observation is 100%.It indicates that this optimum subsets regression equation can give a better sudden dropping prediction of rain water temperature at Xiluodu Dam,so it can be applied in actual works.