台风灾情评估及方法综述

台风是一种导致严重灾害的天气系统,其灾害评估是减灾防灾的决策基础;国内外台风灾情评估基本区分为统计指标综合法和统计模拟法。归纳了6种主要的统计指标综合方法,总结了统计模拟评估法的基本步骤,在此基础比较了台风灾情评估方法的不同特点。从评估的模型、指标选择以及评估结果等几个方面评述了指标评估方法中以及统计模拟法存在的问题。最后,对灾情评估发展趋势的5个方面进行展望,并指出:国内统计模拟方法的评估较少开展,应与指标评估方法相结合,积极开展统计模拟方法的灾情评估;选择不同的行业,针对行业具体特点,建立敏感行业的灾情评估模型;加强高新技术,特别是卫星遥感技术在台风灾害评估中的应用;同时要加强评估决策支持系统研究。

An Overview of Assessment and Approaches on Typhoon Disaster

Typhoon is one of the disaster weather systems,and its disaster assessment is the decision foundation of disaster reduction and prevention.Statistical index synthesis and statistical simulation are basic assessment methods of typhoon disaster home and abroad.Six statistical index synthesis methods are concluded and basic steps of statistical simulation assessment method are summarized,based on which features of assessment approaches on typhoon disaster are compared.From aspects as assessment model,index choosing and assessment results,etc.problems existed in the two methods are commented.At last,5 aspects of the assessment development are prospected and suggestions are given:statistical simulation,which is less used in China,should be applied with the index assessment method;to establish disaster assessment models for different industries especially special ones according to their specific characteristics;to strengthen application of high and new technology,particularly satellite remote sensing technology in typhoon disaster assessment;to enhance study on assessment decision supporting system.