| 基于致洪暴雨预报的三峡水库洪水预估系统及试验评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 金琪,王继竹,高琦,孟英杰,陈良华.基于致洪暴雨预报的三峡水库洪水预估系统及试验评估[J].灾害学,2012,27(3):54-58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金琪 王继竹 高琦 孟英杰 陈良华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 长江流域气象中心,湖北武汉,430074
2. 三峡梯调通信中心,湖北宜昌,443133 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局2011年城市气象防灾减灾专项“长江流域水文气象服务试点” |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了一种基于致洪暴雨预报,结合水文控制站水位、流量信息,运用多元统计回归模型开展的三峡水库洪水程度分级预估的方法.通过历史回代和2010、2011年预估试验应用表明:该预估系统稳定可靠,适用于三峡水库洪水程度预估,对三峡上游暴雨引发的洪水程度能进行准确的预估,而且对三峡上游支流的暴雨洪水预测也有一定的预见性.应用该系统三峡水库的洪水预见期可达3d以上,能为防汛决策和三峡水库防洪调度赢得时间.
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| 关 键 词： | 致洪暴雨 洪水程度 预估系统 三峡水库 |
Flood Prediction System of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Heavy Rains Forecast and Its Evaluation |
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| Jin Qi
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Wang Jizhu
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Gao Qi
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Meng Yingjie
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Chen Lianghua.Flood Prediction System of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Heavy Rains Forecast and Its Evaluation[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(3):54-58. |
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| Authors: | Jin Qi Wang Jizhu Gao Qi Meng Yingjie Chen Lianghua |
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| Institution: | 1.Meteorological Center of the Yangtze River,Wuhan 430074,China;2.Dispatch and Communication Center of Three Gorges Reservoir,Yichang 443133,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper introduces a method for the flood level evaluation of Three Gorges Reservoir based on the heavy rains forecast and the multivariate statistics regression,using the data of hydrological control station water level and flow.The system runs stably with historical data backtracking and the evaluation tests of 2010 and 2011,applies to the flood level evaluation,can make a accurately forecast of upstream Three Gorges heavy rains and have a certain predictability for flood of upstream Three Gorges branches.The system foreseeable period can be brought forward about three days and give more time for the decision making of flood control and the operations of Three Gorges Reservoir. |
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| Keywords: | the flood-resulting rainstorm the flood degree evaluation system Three Gorges Reservoir |
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