| 一种台风灾情综合评估模型及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈仕鸿,隋广军,唐丹玲.一种台风灾情综合评估模型及应用[J].灾害学,2012(2):87-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈仕鸿 隋广军 唐丹玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东外语外贸大学;中国科学院南海海洋研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省自然科学基金团队项目“华南沿海台风遥感检测与灾害评估”(8351030101000002);广东省科技计划重点项目“重大台风灾害及城市火灾应急响应集成系统研制”(2010B031900041);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“广东省台风灾情预测研究”(GD11YGL03);广东高校优秀青年创新人才培养计划项目“台风灾情预测和灾级评估模型研究:基于广东省台风灾害的实证分析”(LYM11062) |
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| 摘 要： | 对台风灾情评估提出了一种基于台风灾害案例历史案例分析、综合模糊数学和灰色关联分析的综合评估模型;利用模糊隶属函数将台风灾情原始数据无量纲化,再设定一极重灾为参考序列。根据台风各评估指标与参考序列的距离,计算出关联系数;将关联系数加权平均和定义为灾度,根据灾度值评定台风的灾级。并以广东省台风灾情为例,验证了此模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风灾情评估 模糊数学 灰色关联分析 层次分析法 广东省 |
A Model of Typhoon Disaster Comprehensive Evaluation and Its Application |
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| Chen Shihong,Sui Guangjun and Tang Danling.A Model of Typhoon Disaster Comprehensive Evaluation and Its Application[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012(2):87-91. |
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| Authors: | Chen Shihong Sui Guangjun and Tang Danling |
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| Institution: | 1.Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521,China;2.South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510301,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the case study,comprehensive fuzzy mathematical analysis and grey relational analysis of historical typhoon cases,a model for comprehensive evaluation of typhoon disasters is worked out.In this model,the typhoon disaster raw data are processed with dimensionless method by use of fuzzy membership function,and a severely affected area is set as the reference series.The correlation coefficients are calculated according to the distance between the typhoon evaluation index and the reference series.Then,the correlation coefficients are processed by weighted average and defined as disaster degree.The disaster grade of typhoon is evaluated based on the disaster degree.Taking typhoon disasters in Guangdong province,the model is verified. |
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| Keywords: | typhoon disaster evaluation fuzzy mathematics grey relational analysis analytic hierarchy process Guangdong province |
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