黑龙江省水稻初霜冻灾害致灾因子危险性分析

根据黑龙江省水稻的生长发育期,以全省77个台站1961-2009年的逐日最低气温资料、霜冻历史灾情数据、社会经济资料、地理信息数据及作物生育期资料为基础,综合运用GIS空间分析和灾害风险评估数学方法,分析了黑龙江省初霜冻灾害的灾情特征,并根据霜冻灾害的形成机制,分别计算水稻生育期初霜冻发生概率及偏早初霜冻发生概率,进而确定了致灾因子,对致灾因子危险性进行分析与评估。结果表明:水稻初霜冻灾害发生的概率随纬度的增加大致呈增大的分布形势,大兴安岭、孙吴、逊克、嘉荫、伊春、嫩江、克山、拜泉、海伦等市县为高危险区,黑河大部、齐齐哈尔东部、绥化北部、尚志、穆棱、富锦为次高危险区,松嫩平原南部、三江平原大部、牡丹江南部为次低及低危险区。

Frost Hazard Risk Assessment of Rice in Heilongjiang Province

According to theory of crop growing stages,the characteristics of early frosts is analyzed,the probability of the occurrence of frost and early frost in the whole growth of rice is calculated based on the daily minimum temperature data,frost historical disaster data,socio-economic data,GIS data and information on crop growth period of 77 meteorological stations nationwide in the period of 1961 to 2009.The result shows that the probability of early frost damages to rice increases roughly with increasing latitude.Daxinganling,Sunwu,Xunke Jiayin,Yichun,Nenjiang,Keshan,Baiquan,Hailun are the high risk areas,Heihe,eastern Qiqihar,northern Suihua,Shangzhi,Muling and Fujin are the secondary high risk areas and Songnen plain,Sanjiang plain and the southern Mudanjiang are the low risk areas.