东北地区落叶松毛虫灾害气象风险区划初步研究

利用黑龙江省牡丹江市海林市松毛虫发生情况与气象因子进行相关性分析,筛选出≥10℃积温正距平、夏季气温正距平和日最高气温≥30℃天数正距平、冬季气温正距平以及3-10月降水量负距平与松毛虫大发生有较好的相关性。其次,基于东北地区76个气象站,利用上述关键气象因子作为利于东北地区松毛虫大发生的气象条件进行分析。结果表明,1971-2010年40年东北地区年≥10℃积温、夏季和冬季气温均呈明显增加趋势,3-10月降水呈微弱的降低趋势,也就是说40年来东北地区气候变化趋向于利于松毛虫灾害发生。另外,对东北地区1971-2010年上述关键气象因子单因子利于松毛虫灾害发生的历史风险以及综合气象因子利于松毛虫灾害发生的历史风险进行分析,得出东北地区松毛虫灾害气象风险区划分布,结果表明吉林省中部、黑龙江大小兴安岭、牡丹江半山区的南部和西部松毛虫灾害气象风险约为10年二、三遇;辽宁大部,吉林省东南部、黑龙江松嫩平原和三江平原松毛虫灾害气象风险约为10年三至四遇。

Preliminary Study on Meteorological Risk Zoning of Pine Moth Infestation in Northeast China

The relationship between pine moth infestation and meteorological factors in Hailin city of Mudanjiang,Heilongjiang Province is analysis in this paper.It indicates that positive anomaly of ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature,mean air temperature in summer,number of days in summer that daily maximum air temperature≥30 ℃,mean air temperature in winter,and negative anomaly of precipitation from March to October played good roles in pine moth infestation.Farther more,above key meteorological factors are used to evaluate the meteorological conditions that induced pine moth infestation in northeast China based on 76 meteorological stations.Firstly,the climate tendency rate of above meteorological factors from 1971 to 2010 in northeast China indicates that ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature,mean air temperature in summer,and mean air temperature in winter increased evidently in recent 40 years in northeast China,meanwhile the precipitation amount from March to October during pine moth growth season decreased slightly,that is climate changes in northeast China tends to make for pine moth infestation.Secondly,historical risk of above mention meteorological factors(single and integrated) is analyzed to get the meteorological risk zoning of pine moth infestation in northeast China.The results show that the meteorological risk of pine moth infestation is twice to three times in-a-decade in the center region in Jilin province,and in Daxing’an and Xiaoxing’an mountains as well as in south and west region of Mudanjiang mountains in Heilongjiang province.It is about three to four times in-a-decade in most regions in Liaoning province,in southeast regions in Jilin province,and in Songnen Plain and Sanjiang Plain in Heilongjiang province.