中国财产保险业巨灾损失赔付能力实证分析

商业保险是社会化巨灾风险分散机制的重要组成部分,要在中国现阶段巨灾事件频发的复杂环境中构建合理的损失分摊机制,不能不考虑以损失补偿为主要功能的财产保险业应对巨灾损失的能力。在Cummins、Doherty和Anita的保险赔付能力度量模型框架及改进后的损失对数正态分布假设下,引入1998～2008年中国财产保险业经营数据,对2009年初时点上在中国大陆经营财产保险业务的39家财产保险公司及全行业巨灾损失赔付能力进行了实证分析。结果显示,由于全行业资本与盈余的低水平以及再保险市场发展的严重滞后,在1 200亿到2 000亿元的损失区间内,中国财产保险业的赔付能力缺口在26.8亿到815.6亿元之间,且缺口增长速度大于损失增长速度。通过与2008年初的赔付能力实证分析结果对比发现,灾害频发的2008年客观上显著降低了中国财产保险行业应对极端损失的能力。度量结果从实证基础上昭示了政府大力扶持和参与巨灾保险体系建设的必要性和紧迫性。

Empirical Study on Capacity of China Property and Liability Insurance Industry to React to Catastrophic Loss

China has immerged into a risk society that is characterized by swiftly increasing loss volume and complicated loss circumstance,calling for urgent action to construct overall risk diversification system that incorporates commercial insurance.Under circumstance like this,whether insurance industry as a whole can be relied on to the compensation of catastrophic losses is a question that is of profound importance.Based on Cummins,Doherty and Anita(2002) capacity measuring model and utilizing 1998-2008 property and liability insurance industry data,this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the capacity of China property and liability insurance industry at year end 2008 under improved loss distribution assumption.The results turn out that the whole industry is subject to huge capacity shortage(between 2.68 to 81.56 billion RMB in the 120 to 200 billion RMB loss range) with increasing velocity above that of loss volume.Moreover,several catastrophes in year 2008 have considerably affected the overall capacity of the industry.Empirical results of this paper,explained in the framework of the measuring model used,is definitely due to the low capital and surplus level of the industry as well as the insufficiency of domestic reinsurance market,which again call for immediate governmental action in the undertaking of catastrophe insurance system constructing.