基于灰色理论的黑龙江省暴雨洪涝特征分析及灾变预测

基于灰色理论和气象灾害普查资料对黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害时空分布特征进行了分析并进行了灾变预测。黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害主要发生在5-9月,其中7月损失最大;1990年以来暴雨次数虽然有所减少,但暴雨洪涝造成的损失却明显增加;黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害可划分为严重洪涝区、重洪涝区、中洪涝区和轻洪涝区,严重洪涝区位于松花江及其支流沿岸的大庆市、伊春市、齐齐哈尔市、佳木斯市和哈尔滨市。根据灰色灾变预测理论预测2013年出现严重暴雨洪涝灾害(全省农作物受灾面积≥500 000 hm2、可比经济损失≥50 000万元)的可能性最大,其次是2016年。

Analysis of Flood and Disaster Forecast in Heilongjiang Province Based On Grey Theory

Based on the grey theory and census data of meteorological disasters in Heilongjiang province,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm and flood disasters are analyzed and hazards are predicted.Heavy floods in Heilongjiang province mainly occur in May to September,and the greatest losses are in July.Although the number of heavy rainfall has decreased since 1990,the losses have increased significantly.Most serious flood zones,serious flood zones,flood zones and light flood zones are divided by use of the grey theory.The most serious flood zones are located in Daqing,Yichun,Qiqihar,Jiamusi and Harbin on the both sides of the Songhua River and its tributaries.It is predicted,by grey disaster forecast theory,that there is a high probability of storm flood in 2013,which would affect crops area of ≥500 000 hm2 and result in the comparable economic losses of ≥500 million yuan in the whole province.The next predicted disaster year is 2016.