基于ESDA-GWR的1997—2012年中国省域能源消费碳排放时空演变特征

利用1997—2012年《中国能源统计年鉴》和《中国统计年鉴》相关数据,结合重心转移、ESDA及GWR等模型和方法,分析了近16年间中国省域能源消费碳排放量的空间相关性、异质性及影响因素,根据碳排放量划分标准将各省份划分为不同的碳排放区.结果表明:16年间碳排放量的重心向西迁移;我国省域碳排放量存在较为显著的空间正相关,自相关性在整体上表现出先增大后减小的趋势.2001年全局Moran's I指数达到最高值,为0.3012;能源消费碳排放量的冷热点格局表现出冷点扩张、热点被压缩的趋势;影响碳排放量的6个因素的影响程度由大到小依次为:总人口人均GDP煤炭消耗比重全社会固定资产投资第二产业比重人口老龄化率,只有人口老龄化率这一指标表现出负相关性;近16年我国省域碳排放量的空间格局发生了显著变化,2012年已有13个省份属于超重型碳排放区,表明我国要加强碳减排的力度.

Spatial-temporal evolution of provincial carbon emission in China from 1997 to 2012 based on ESDA and GWR model

The driving factors of spatial heterogeneity in energy consumption-related carbon emission in China was analyzed by the methods of the gravity center migration, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Data from China Statistical Yearbook and China Energy Statistical Yearbook between 1997 and 2012 was adopted to evaluate the reliability of the method. The results showed that the gravity center of energy consumption-related carbon emission moved westward in the 16 years. There was a significant positive spatial correlation in energy consumption-related carbon emission among provinces. Global spatial autocorrelation increased first and decreased. Cold spot areas of energy consumption-related carbon emission enhanced, while the hot spot areas shrank in the 16 years. The six influential factors of carbon emission in a descending order were: total population>per capita GDP> proportion of coal consumption>total investment in fixed assets> proportion of second industry> aging rate of population, with aging rate of population the only negative in correlating with carbon emission. There was a significant change in spatial pattern in China. 13 provinces have been included in the super serious carbon emission area by the end of 2012, which reflected that China should strengthen the reduction of carbon emission.