浙江省环境污染与经济发展关系的实证研究

本文在环境库兹涅茨曲线假设基础上,采用1991—2014年浙江省环境和经济数据,运用回归模型对其环境污染与经济发展的关系进行实证检验。结果表明:浙江工业废水、工业废气、工业SO2排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量均符合EKC假设,其中工业SO2和工业废水人均排放量与人均GDP呈倒U形关系,拐点分别出现在2005年与2010年;工业废气排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量尚处于倒U形左侧上升阶段,其中工业固体废弃物人均产生量已接近拐点。而生活污水排放量与EKC假设并不相符,人均生活污水排放量与人均GDP呈单调递增的线形关系。对EKC驱动因子的分析表明,加强政府环境治理,以不断完善的环境法规推动产业结构升级调整,以持续的技术进步与创新促进关键行业节能减排,有利于克服规模效应,推动浙江环境污染与经济发展的关系早日实现解耦。

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Environmental Pollution and Economic Development in Zhejiang Province

Based on the hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve, the paper did an empirical test on the relationship between environmental pollution and economic development by regression model with the environmental and economic data of Zhejiang province from 1991 to 2014. The results showed that the industrial wastewater, industrial waste gases, industrial SO₂ emissions and industrial solid wastes of Zhejiang were consistent with the hypothesis of EKC: First, industrial SO₂ and industrial wastewater emissions per capita were in the inverted U shape relationship with GDP per capita, the inflection point appeared in 2005 and 2010; Second, industrial waste gas emissions and industrial solid waste was still in the left rising stage of the inverted U shape; and third, the industrial solid waste per capita output has been close to the inflection point. However, the domestic sewage discharge was not consistent with the EKC hypothesis, and the linear relationship between per capita domestic sewage discharge and per capita GDP was monotone increasing. Analysis of the driving factors of EKC showed that strengthening the government environmental governance, promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure adjustment by improving the environmental laws and regulations, and promoting energy saving and emission reduction in key industries by technological progress and innovation will help to overcome the scale effect, and decouple the relationship between environmental pollution and economic development of Zhejiang province as soon as possible.