| 多种灾情预测模型的研究──2001年后上海市热带气旋灾情预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 茆会勇,张相庭.多种灾情预测模型的研究──2001年后上海市热带气旋灾情预测[J].自然灾害学报,2001(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 茆会勇 张相庭 |
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| 作者单位： | 固体力学教育部重点实验室.同济大学工程力学与技术系!上海 200092 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市科技发展基金项目（986906035） |
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| 摘 要： | 采用３种方法，即灰色模型ＧＭ、自回归－滑动平均模型ＡＲＭＡ和人工神经网络ＡＮＮ预测了上海市２００１年后（含２００１年）强热带气旋出现的趋势与规律。结果表明，２００１，２００６和２０１０年将出现中级以上灾情，而前两个年份灾情较重．通过数值计算结果比较了３种方法的应用特点，为进一步建立综合预测模型打下基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 灾害预测 灰色模型 自回归-滑动平均模型 人工神经网络 |
Study on some disaster-forecasting models: prediction of disastrous losses due to tropical cyclones in Shanghai City after 2001 |
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| MAO Hui-yong,ZHANG Xiang-ting.Study on some disaster-forecasting models: prediction of disastrous losses due to tropical cyclones in Shanghai City after 2001[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001(2). |
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| Authors: | MAO Hui-yong ZHANG Xiang-ting |
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| Abstract: | The trend and regularity of occurrence of strong tropical cyclones in Shanghai City after 2001 are predicted by three models (grey model, auto-regressive moving average model and artificial neural network model). The results show that there will be natural disaster conditions of greater than middle grade in 2001, 2006 and 2010, especially in first both years.The characteristics of three models in application are compared by numerical results to set up the base for establishing a comprehensive prediction model. |
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| Keywords: | disaster prediction grey model auto-regressive moving-average model artificial neural network |
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