Improving Benefit Transfer Demand Functions: A GIS Approach

Methodologies for transfer of non-market, natural resource recreation benefits are an active research topic. This arises because of the appeal of modelling the impacts of possible changes in site quality or benefits at unsurveyed sites. However, successful benefit transfer must necessarily rely on development of reliable visitor demand functions that incorporate travel time, demographic and substitute factors. Previous efforts to include all of these elements in a single arrivals model are rare. By integrating data from numerous sources within a geographical information system (GIS) we have developed a model to predict the number of visitors to a recreational woodland in eastern England. Variables were classified into discrete groups that were combined into comparatively homogeneous zones from which to calculate visit rates. Poisson regression techniques were then applied in a stepwise procedure to assess the influence of each determinant. Our analysis highlighted both substantial promise and some caveats in using GIS for future benefit transfer work.