| Abstract: | The objectives were to (1) delineate the complex set of rules governing the fate and transfer of water rights as agricultural land is urbanized in Texas and New Mexico in the United States and Chihuahua in Mexico and (2) estimate the change in water use as a result of such urbanization. Important additional determinants of water use in the region include intensification of agriculture and the hydroschizophrenic policy framework. We conducted interviews with key informants to identify the possible outcomes for changes in water rights as land is urbanized. We constructed decision trees for each of the three jurisdictions, Chihuahua, Texas, and New Mexico, that identified the possible outcomes from urbanization. For each of the possible outcomes in the decision tree, we estimated a range of potential water use outcomes and the most likely water use outcome on a per unit of land area basis. Results show that urbanization of agricultural land has almost no impact on the aggregate demand for or use of surface water. However, the impacts of urbanization on groundwater use vary considerably over the region from Texas to New Mexico to Chihuahua. In New Mexico and Chihuahua where groundwater rights can be leased or sold to other users, the likely impact is a net increase in groundwater use as land is urbanized, ranging from 0 to 3,000 m3/ha in New Mexico and averaging 3,000 m3/ha or more in Chihuahua. In Texas, there is a net benefit in groundwater savings, but those savings are subject to being offset by increased groundwater pumping to meet the needs of expanding pecan production. The net result is continued groundwater depletion, threatening the life of the transboundary aquifers, the Hueco Bolson and the Mesilla Bolson, in the Middle Rio Grande basin (defined as the part of the basin between Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico to the confluence of the river with the Rio Conchos from Mexico). |
