发电设备可靠性研究现状与发展

通过对国内外发电设备可靠性研究的分析,提出了我国发电设备可靠性研究大体经历了可靠性指标统计分析、传统可靠性模型分析以及电力市场下可靠性分析3个阶段。在比较各阶段研究特点的基础上,指出了建立发电设备可靠性成本与可靠性效益之间的平衡,设定反映二者关系的新的可靠性指标是电力市场下发电设备可靠性研究的新特点。笔者认为,所提出了数据挖掘技术,是发电设备可靠性管理实现实时化、智能化与预测化的一种有效方法。

Current Research Status of Electric Generating Equipment's Reliability and Its Development

By analyzing the research status of electric generating equipment's reliability at home and broad, it is considered that the domestic study process on electric generating equipment's reliability generally went through three stages, namely, statistical analysis of reliability index, traditional reliability model analysis and reliability analysis under electricity market. Based on the comparison among them, it is pointed out that building the balance between reliability cost and benefit and seeking the new reliability indexes which reflect both the cost and the benefit is the new characteristics of reliability study on power plant equipment in power market. Then, it is considered that the data mining technology is an effective way to realize the real-time, intellectualized and divinable management for power plant equipment reliability.