基于ISM—CRITIC法的通用航空可控飞行撞地影响因素分析

为了研究通用航空可控飞行撞地的影响因素，提出针对性的预防措施，采用基元事件分析法对中国民航安全办公室不安全数据库中2006—2015年间发生的30起通用航空可控飞行撞地事件进行分析，建立通用航空可控飞行撞地影响因素体系；运用解释结构模型对影响因素进行两两对比分析，建立3层阶梯有向模型；运用CRITIC法计算各影响因素权重并排序。结果表明:影响通用航空可控飞行撞地事件的表层直接原因分别是注意力分配不当、违反标准运行程序、安全意识淡薄、应急能力弱、导航设备失效、发动机失效、其他天气意外、飞行保障不利和组织混乱；中层间接原因分别是驾驶技能不足、航前准备不足、机组资源管理欠缺、地形复杂、能见度和光线刺激；深层根本原因分别是疲劳驾驶、公司违规和违法组织飞行；影响通用航空可控飞行撞地事件发生的主要因素分别是飞行保障不利和组织混乱、航前准备不足、安全意识淡薄、驾驶技能不足和违反标准运行程序。

Analysis on influence factors of controlled flight into terrain of general aviation based on ISM-CRITIC method

In order to study the influence factors of controlled flight into terrain of general aviation, and propose the targeted prevention measures, 30 controlled flight into terrain events of general aviation occurred from 2006 to 2015 in the unsafe database of China Civil Aviation Safety Office were analyzed by using the element event analysis method, and an influence factor system of controlled flight into terrain of general aviation was estab-lished. The pairwise comparative analysis on the influence factors was carried out by using the interpretation structure model (ISM), then a three-layer ladder directed model was established, and the weights of each influ-ence factor were calculated and sorted by using the CRITIC method. The results showed that the surface direct causes of controlled flight into terrain of general aviation were the improper distribution of attention, violation of standard operating procedures, weak safety awareness, weak emergency response capacity, failure of navigation equipment, failure of engine, other weather accidents, unfavorable flight support and organizational chaos respec-tively, and the middle indirect causes were the inadequate driving skills, inadequate pre-flight preparation, lack of crew resource management, complex terrain, visibility and light stimulation respectively, while the deep root causes were the fatigue driving, company violation and illegal organization of flights respectively. The main fac-tors influencing the occurrence of controlled flight into terrain of general aviation were the unfavorable flight support and organizational chaos, inadequate pre-flight preparation, weak safety awareness, inadequate driving skills and violation of standard operating procedures respectively.