中国城乡人口与建设用地的时空变化及其耦合特征研究

1990 年代中后期以来的快速城镇化进程对我国城乡人地关系产生了重要影响，深入分析该过程中的城乡人口与土地变化及其关联特征具有重要意义。论文应用脱钩理论及其相关模型，重点分析2000-2008 年我国城乡建设用地变化及其与城乡人口变化的耦合关系。研究表明：25 个省区城市建设用地增长率高于人口增长率，两者协调性欠佳，呈现弱脱钩状态；农村居民点用地并没有随着农村人口的减少而减少，约一半省区呈现强脱钩状态，11 个省区呈现衰退脱钩状态；城乡人口与建设用地变化的关系可划分为7 种类型，其中有1/3 的省区人口与建设用地变化关系极不协调。论文认为，财税体制和官员晋升/考核机制不完善、城乡规划管控不力、城乡二元制度根深蒂固是造成前述问题的重要原因；新时期协调城乡人口与建设用地变化的可持续途径在于，遵循人口、产业、城镇、社会发展的客观规律，积极推进财税/绩效体制改革，科学划定城市空间增长边界，逐步消除城乡二元结构体制，有序推进城乡土地统筹置换。

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Population and Construction Land Change in Urban and Rural China

A better understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics and driving mechanism of population and residential land change in urban and rural China under rapid urbanization and industrialization is the important premise for constituting feasible policy and strategy promoting the farmland protection, urban development and new countryside construction. Based on decoupling theory and model, this paper analyzes the overall trend, coupling types and patterns of China's population and construction land change in urban and rural areas, using urban and rural demographic and land-use data from China Statistics Bureau and the Department of Land and Resources of each province. The results show that, the relationship between urban population and construction land in 25 provinces are weakly decoupled, that is, the growth rate of urban construction land is higher than the growth rate of urban population; while in rural areas, rural residential land expends as rural population decreases. The relationship between urban population and construction land in nearly half of the provinces all over the country are strongly decoupled and that in 11 provinces reflects the phenomenon of recession decoupling, that is, rural residential land change is not coordinated with rural population change in most of the provinces. The relationship between urban-rural population and construction land could be divided into seven types and the relationship in about 1/3 provinces is very uncoordinated. This paper argues that the important reason for the aforementioned problems include three aspects: fiscal and tax systems and the evaluation mechanism for officials being imperfect, poor control of urban and rural planning, and the deep-rooted urban-rural dual system. In the new era, the sustainable approaches to coordinate urban-rural population and construction land changes are: following the objective laws in population, industrial, urban and social development, actively reforming fiscal and tax systems, scientifically defining the urban spatial growth boundary, gradually removing the urban-rural dual system, and orderly promoting urban-rural land integration and replacement.