我国燃料乙醇的生产潜力与发展对策研究

论文测算了我国能源作物和农林废弃物等原料的燃料乙醇转化潜力，发现2015-2030年我国燃料乙醇的理论生产能力将从6 364×10⁴ t 增长到1.18×10⁸ t，可行的产量水平将在1 387.9×10⁴ t 以上。如果能实现这一产量，将在很大程度上缓解我国的石油供求矛盾。今后提高燃料乙醇生产能力的可行策略主要有以下方面：加强边际土地资源评估和开发，促进能源作物的规模化利用，通过利益引导加强秸秆能源化利用，延长林木采伐加工产业链，在农村地区发展沼气等新型能源替代薪柴。

The Estimation of Producing Potential of Fuel Ethanol and Its Developing Strategy in China

As a developing country with the highest economic growth rate and the largest population in the world, China's petroleum security situation is far from optimistic at present, and exploiting biofuel such as fuel ethanol to replenish the shortage of petroleum supply is rather urgent. The current production scale of fuel ethanol in China is comparatively low, but has plenty of feedstock to produce fuel ethanol, so it is necessary to evaluate the future producing potential of fuel ethanol thoroughly from all feasible sorts of feedstock in China. According to the technical economic parameters and restriction factors of feasible sorts of feedstock such as energy crops and farming and forest residue, an estimation of ethanol producing potential in the future of China is made in this thesis. And the result shows that the ethanol production potential will rise from 63.64×106 to 118×10⁶ t between 2015 and 2030, and the feasible production capacity can exceed 13.88×10⁶ t, which will sharply remit the petroleum gap between supply and demand if this capacity is realized. Major feasible tactics to increase the production of ethanol in future is as follows: strengthening the evaluation and exploitation of marginal land; promoting large- scale use of energy crops; increasing energy transforming of crop stalk by benefit drive; prolong the industrial chain of forest cutting and process; and using new energy such as methane substitute for fuel wood in rural area.